Objectives To discuss the effect of heat wave on the death-toll of cardiovascular disease in Nanjing area.
Methods The relationship between the death-toll of cardiovascular diseases and heat wave based on the meteorological data from 2004 to 2010 in Nanjing area was analyzed by using a Poisson distribution of GAM.
Results The risk rate of cardiovascular diseases was affected by the maximum temperature on the day and a lag for 2 days; the values were 1.204 (95% CI:1.110~1.306) and 1.124 (95% CI:1.013~1.247). There was a positive correlation between the mortality of cardiovascular diseases and the maximum temperature during heat wave.
Conclusions The effect of heat wave on the mortality of cardiovascular diseases was significant; the mortality was increased with the rise of maximum temperature and the reduce of average atmospheric pressure; and a delayed effect of high temperature was also observed. The predicted value by GAM was close to the rising and declining trend of actual mortality.
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