Dynamic assessment of ecological environment vulnerability and its association with population mortality in Wuwei, Gansu province, China, 2004—2023

Objective To conduct a dynamic assessment of ecological environment vulnerability in Wuwei, Gansu province, and to analyze its association with population mortality.

Methods The study areas included the one district and three counties of Wuwei. An ecological vulnerability assessment system was constructed based on the sensitivity-resilience-pressure model. Using the analytic hierarchy process-principal component analysis entropy weight combination model, the ecological environment vulnerability of Wuwei from 2004 to 2023 was dynamically assessed to divide the district and three counties into high- and low-vulnerability regions. The chi-square test was used to compare mortality rates between groups, and the log-linear Joinpoint regression model was employed to investigate the pattern of mortality rate changes.

Results Spatially, the ecological vulnerability in Wuwei was relatively low in the southwest and central region and relatively high in the north and southeast. Temporally, ecological vulnerability increased first and then decreased. The values of global Moran's Index were all above 0.88. High-high clustering and low-low clustering were primarily observed. From 2004 to 2023, the areas with severe and moderate vulnerability in Wuwei decreased by 64.28% and 41.16%, respectively, while the areas with mild and slight vulnerability expanded by 224.81% and 49.45%, respectively. The difference in mortality rate between areas with high and low ecological vulnerability from 2004 to 2023 was statistically significant (χ²=272.34, P < 0.001). The annual percent change in mortality rate for areas with high ecological vulnerability from 2013 to 2023 was 8.55% (95% confidence interval: 1.07%-16.58%, P < 0.05). The annual percent change in mortality rate for areas with low ecological vulnerability from 2010 to 2023 was -12.35% (95% confidence interval: -20.86% to -2.92%, P < 0.05).

Conclusion From 2004 to 2023, the vulnerability of the ecological environment in Wuwei increased first and then decreased, with distinct regional differences. The mortality rates differed across areas with varying levels of ecological environment vulnerability, indicating a potential association between ecological environment vulnerability and population mortality risk.