Habitant analysis and prediction of suitable habitants of Himalayan Marmots in Sichuan Province, China

Objective To analyze the habitat characteristics of Himalayan Marmots in Sichuan Province, China, and predict their suitable habitats.

Methods The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the habitat characteristics of Marmot caves and the relationship between the density of Marmot caves and habitat factors. A MaxEnt-based ecological niche model was used to predict the potential spatial distribution of Himalayan Marmot caves.

Results The habitat characteristics of most Marmot caves are as follows: an elevation of 3 700~4 000 m, a small slope, the land cover being cultivated, a relatively high normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the soil type being leptosols, warm temperature, and abundant precipitation. However, too high elevation, NDVI, temperature, and precipitation were not conducive to the distribution of Marmot caves. The main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan Marmot caves were annual precipitation, slope, soil type, and the maximum temperature of the warmest month. The suitable conditions for potential distribution of Himalayan Marmot caves were: annual precipitation, 540.0~620.0 mm; slope, 0.0°~4.0°; soil type, leptosols; and the maximum temperature of the warmest month, 16.0°~21.0℃. The area under the curve(AUC) of MaxEnt prediction was 0.891 9, indicating that the model showed good performance, and the highly suitable area was 601 km² (3.2%).

Conclusion The annual precipitation, slope, soil type, and the maximum temperature of the warmest month are the main environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of Himalayan Marmots. Surveillance of Marmots and major environmental impact factors should be strengthened, and adequate health education should be provided for residents and tourists, in order to prevent plague infection and outbreaks.