Analysis of spatial aggregation and meteorological factors of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Guigang, 2015—2019

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Guigang, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (GZAR), and to explore the influence and lag effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD.

Methods The spatial distribution of HFMD in Guigang was analyzed by ArcGIS10.8 software and the high incidence areas was studied by kernel density analysis. The Spearman correlation analysis of meteorological factors and the number of daily HFMD cases and the study of distributed lag nonlinear model were conducted with R 4.2.0 software.

Results A total of 40 814 cases of HFMD were reported in Guigang from 2015 to 2019. There was a spatial aggregation of HFMD in Guigang, and the kernel density analysis showed that the high incidence areas were mainly located in Guicheng Street and Jiangnan Office. The incidence of HFMD was positively correlated with daily average temperature, daily rainfall and sunshine duration, and negatively correlated with daily average air pressure. When the temperature was 30.4 ℃(P₉₅), the cumulative risk of HFMD was highest at a lag of 21 days (RR=1.49, 95%CI: 1.23, 1.80), and when the air pressure was 995.3 hPa(P₅), the cumulative risk was highest at a lag of 21 days (RR=1.56, 95%CI: 1.29, 1.88). When the daily rainfall was 25.06 mm(P₉₅), the cumulative risk was highest at a lag of 21 days (RR=1.43, 95%CI: 1.16, 1.77), and when the sunshine duration was 10.3 h(P₉₅), the cumulative risk was highest at a lag of 21 days (RR=0.48, 95%CI: 0.38, 0.59).

Conclusion High temperature, low air pressure and high rainfall can increase the risk of HFMD, while long sunshine duration can reduce the risk of HFMD, and all have a certain lag effect. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the early warning and prediction of HFMD.