Trend of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in China based on age-period-cohort model

Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer and their long-term changes in China from 1990 to 2019.

Methods The incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer were analyzed based on the global burden of disease (GBD) database in China from 1990 to 2019. The temporal trends of age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality were analyzed by Joinpoint software, and the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change were calculated. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer.

Results The incidence and age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 2.75/100 000 and 2.05/100 000, respectively. The mortality and age-standardized mortality of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 0.51/100 000 and 0.39/100 000, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in China increased, with an average annual percentage change of 2.5%(P < 0.05), and the age-standardized mortality decreased with an average annual percentage change of -0.3%(P < 0.05). The age-period-cohort model showed that the risks of incidence and mortality increased with age, the risk of incidence increased with period, and the risk of mortality decreased with period. The cohort effect was also different, the later the people birth, the higher the incidence risk of thyroid cancer, and the lower the mortality risk of thyroid cancer.

Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence of thyroid cancer in China showed an upward trend. The risks of incidence and mortality increased with age, and the incidence risk increased among people born in recent years, suggesting that people born in recent years should be the key population in the prevention and treatment of thyroid cancer.