Time series analysis of the effect of ambient pollutants on population mortality in Heze, China, 2019—2020

Objective To analyze the effect of air pollutants (particulate matter 2.5PM_2.5, sulfur dioxideSO₂, nitrogen dioxideNO₂ and OzoneO₃) on the daily total, non-accidental, circulatory, and respiratory mortality of inhabitants in Heze, China.

Methods Daily levels of ambient pollutants (PM_2.5, SO₂, NO₂ and O₃), meteorological data, and mortality data of residents in Heze during 2019—2020, were collected for descriptive analysis. The generalized additive model (GAM) of time series analysis was used for estimating the relationship between air pollutants and population mortality.

Results With an increase of 10 μg/m³ of PM_2.5, the excess risks(ERs) of the averages of daily total mortality, non-accidental mortality, circulatory mortality, and respiratory mortality on Lag0 day were 0.95%, 0.96%, 0.82%, and 0.92%, respectively. With an increase of 10 μg/m³ of SO₂, the ER of respiratory mortality on Lag0 day was 15.33%. With an increase of 10 μg/m³ of NO₂, the ERs of the averages of daily mortality, non-accidental mortality, circulatory mortality, and respiratory mortality on Lag0 day were 3.67%, 3.71%, 3.34%, and 4.24%, respectively. Howerver, for every 10 μg/m³ increase in concentration of O₃, the ER of respiratory mortality on Lag1 was 1.31%.

Conclusion Ambient pollutants (PM_2.5, SO₂, NO₂ and O₃) have significant effect on the mortality of residents in Heze.