Time Series Analysis of PM₁₀ and Residents' Non-accidental Deaths in Hefei in 2013—2017

Objective To explore the association between PM₁₀ and non-accidental mortality in Hefei City.

Methods Air pollutant data, meteorological data and daily resident death data were collected from Hefei City in 2013-2017. A time-series distributed lag nonlinear model was used to explore the effect of PM₁₀ and residents' non-accidental deaths, and subgroup analysis was performed according to the gender, age, and education level. The effects of PM₁₀ on residents' deaths were analyzed after inclusion of NO₂ and SO₂.

Results The average concentration of PM₁₀ was 95 μg/m³ during the period of 2013-2017 in Hefei. The risk of non-accidental death and cardiovascular death increased with the increase of PM₁₀. When the PM₁₀ increased by 10 μg/m³, the excess risk (95% CI) of non-accidental death and cardiovascular death increased 0.55% (0.23%, 0.87%) and 0.97% (0.26%, 1.68%). No statistical association was found between PM₁₀ and respiratory disease death. After inclusion of SO₂ and NO₂, the association between PM₁₀ and non-accidental deaths, cardiovascular deaths, and respiratory deaths in the population became weaker. Female and older people were more sensitive to PM₁₀. However PM₁₀ was not related to the educational level of the dead.

Conclusions The pollution of PM₁₀ is serious in Hefei and has an impact on the number of deaths of residents.