Correlation Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Hand-Foot-Mouth Diseases and the Meteorological Factors in Anqing City(2014—2017)

Objectives By analyzing the effect of meteorological factors on the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Anqing city, the authors explored the relationship between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors, in order to provide basis for the control of HFMD.

Methods Descriptive study method and Spearman and multiple stepwise regression analysis method were used to analyze the correlations between meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD from 2014 to 2017.

Results A total of 4 166 HFMD cases were reported in Anqing urban areas from 2014 to 2017. The annual incidence rate was 131.59/100 000. The incidence rate was high in every other year and had the obvious seasonal double peak characteristics. A spring and summer epidemic peak (52.30%) was formed from April to July and the other peak (28.25%) was in September to November. Most of the onset age was (1~3) years old (72.61%). The main occupations were scattered children (54.13%) and kindergarten children (42.41%). Among them, the kindergarten children were the most (49.85%) in high-incidence years and the scattered children were the most (64.35%) in low-incidence years. The ratio of the male and female was 1.60:1, and there was a statistical difference (χ²=236.913, P < 0.001). Spearman analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD were positively correlated with weekly average temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. It was negatively correlated with weekly average pressure and maximum wind speed. Multivariate stepwise regression analysis showed that only the weekly average temperature entered the regression equation(Y=6.309+0.804X). The correlation between morbidity and meteorological factors increased during a week lag and spring-summer peak (0~28) weeks. The epidemic situation increased when the average weekly temperature was above 10℃, and reached its peak at 15℃~25℃ in Anqing urban areas.

Conclusions Strengthened prevention and control of HFMD in kindergartens and urban-rural areas are important measures to reduce its morbidity. The incidence of HFMD was significantly correlated with meteorological factors, which could be used to predict the trend of the epidemics to provide evidence for timely implementation of preventive measures.