Epidemic Trend of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Shantou and Its Association with Meteorological Factors

Objectives  To analyze the prevalent characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Shantou and its relationship with meteorological factors.

Methods  Retrospective investigation was used to reveal the prevalence of HFMD in Shantou in 2011-2015. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to analyze the relationship between HFMD incidence and weekly meteorological factors.

Results  A total of 47 593 HFMD cases were reported in 2011-2015 in Shantou. The annual incidence was 173.57/10⁵. The children under the age of 5 accounted for 92.51% of the total number of cases, among them, the (1~2) year-old group had the highest proportion (32.02%). The prevalence of HFMD yearly in Shantou appeared to be a two-peak with obviously seasonal feature. The first peak was in April to June and the other small peak was in September to November. The weekly average temperature, average vapor pressure, relative humidity, rainfall and average atmospheric pressure with one week lag were significantly associated with the weekly number of HFMD cases. There was a liner relationship between the weekly average temperature and weekly relative humidity with weekly incidence of HFMD.

Conclusions  High temperature and high humidity could induce the increase of HFMD incidence. The strategy for prediction, prevention and control of HFMD should be mainly based on climate change and the epidemic characteristics of the disease.