Prediction for Epidemic Risk of Schistosomiasis by Transmission Index Model in Shandong Province

Objective To predict the invasion rate of oncomelania hupensis and the epidemic potential risk of schistosomiasis in Shandong Province in the next 20 years with the global warming and the operation of south-to-north water diversion project.

Methods The re-adapted Malone schistosome transmission index model was used to calculate the schistosome transmission index (RAMI) in different regions and determine the transmission intensity and category by predicting the meteorological scenarios.

Results 17 cities in Shandong were divided into 3 categories. The transmission intensity was classified as medium in Zaozhuang and Linyi located in the south, Jinan in the middle and the coastal cities in the eastern areas; as low or very low in Jining, Heze, Taian, Laiwu, Zibo, Dongying, Binzhou, and Weifang located in the middle part of the province and was very low in Liaocheng and Dezhou locate in the west.

Conclusions The survivability of oncomelania hupensis in winter and the growth and development of schistosome in oncomelania hupensis were affected by temperature, and the spread of schistosome was affected by precipitation and evaporation.