南京地区高温热浪对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数的影响
Effect of Heat Wave on the Death-toll of Cardiovascular Diseases in Nanjing Area
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摘要:目的 探讨南京市高温热浪对当地居民每日心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响。方法 根据南京地区2004-2010年的居民每日死亡资料和同期气象资料, 采用广义相加模型的Poisson分布, 分析了高温热浪与每日居民心脑血管疾病死亡的关系。结果 心脑血管疾病死亡的RR主要受到当天、死亡前2 d的日最高温度的影响, 其值分别为1.204(95% CI:1.110~1.306)、1.124(95% CI:1.013~1.247);心脑血管疾病的日死亡人数与高温热浪期间的日最高温度正相关。结论 高温热浪对居民心脑血管死亡有影响, 心脑血管疾病日死亡人数随着最高温度的升高及日平均地面气压的降低增加, 且最高温度存在滞后效应。广义相加模型预测的心脑血管死亡人数与实际死亡人数较相近, 上升与下降的变化趋势基本一致。Abstract:Objectives To discuss the effect of heat wave on the death-toll of cardiovascular disease in Nanjing area.Methods The relationship between the death-toll of cardiovascular diseases and heat wave based on the meteorological data from 2004 to 2010 in Nanjing area was analyzed by using a Poisson distribution of GAM.Results The risk rate of cardiovascular diseases was affected by the maximum temperature on the day and a lag for 2 days; the values were 1.204 (95% CI:1.110~1.306) and 1.124 (95% CI:1.013~1.247). There was a positive correlation between the mortality of cardiovascular diseases and the maximum temperature during heat wave.Conclusions The effect of heat wave on the mortality of cardiovascular diseases was significant; the mortality was increased with the rise of maximum temperature and the reduce of average atmospheric pressure; and a delayed effect of high temperature was also observed. The predicted value by GAM was close to the rising and declining trend of actual mortality.
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