基于Monte Carlo模拟法对大米途径摄入镉的风险评估

张德新; 马红梅; 何振宇

基于Monte Carlo模拟法对大米途径摄入镉的风险评估

Risk Assessment of Cadmium Exposure from Rice by Monte Carlo Simulation Method

摘要

摘要:
目的调查武汉市市售大米中镉的污染状况, 结合调查情况应用蒙特卡洛法(Monte Carlo)模拟对大米途径摄入的镉进行健康风险评估。
方法对市售大米中镉进行随机抽样检测, 大米镉含量采用石墨炉原子吸收光谱法(GB/T 5009-2003) 测定, 使用水晶球风险评估软件(Oracle Crystal Ball)针对经大米来源镉暴露进行健康风险评估。
结果检测结果显示市售大米镉含量均未超标, 其均值为0.0619 mg/kg, 标准差为0.0463 mg/kg, 最大值为0.1800 mg/kg, 95%分位值为0.1693 mg/kg; 风险评估结果显示, 有8.89%的高暴露人群可能面临大米镉污染的潜在致癌风险。
结论市售大米中镉污染对于普通人群所带来的健康风险总体上处于可接受水平, 但对于8.89%的高暴露人群需加强风险管理。

Abstract:
Objectives To investigate the dietary cadmium exposure from rice in Wuhan and to assess the health risk by using Monte Carlo simulation method.
Methods Cadmium in various rice samples randomly collected from markets and super markets was determined by the national standard method (GB/T 5009-2003), the health risk of cadmium exposure from rice was assessed by Oracle Crystal Ball analysis software.
Results The contents of cadmium in all samples were lower than the limited level, and the mean was 0.0619 mg/kg, the standard deviation was 0.0463 mg/kg, the maximum was 0.1800 mg/kg, and the 95^th percentile level was 0.1693 mg/kg. The assessment on the health risk of dietary cadmium exposure from rice showed that 8.89% of people might face higher carcinogenic risk brought by cadmium exposure.
Conclusions The levels of cadmium exposure from rice might be acceptable in principle for general population, but it is necessary to strengthen the risk management for 8.89% of people with higher exposure.

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