气象因素对感染性腹泻发病数影响的时间序列研究

谢立; 刘冰; 孙昼; 黄仁杰; 考庆军; 杨旭辉; 王婧; 王麟; 程瑾

气象因素对感染性腹泻发病数影响的时间序列研究

Meteorological Factors and Infectious Diarrhea in Hangzhou:a Time-series Study

摘要

摘要:
目的探讨杭州市气象因素与感染性腹泻发病数的关系。

方法选用广义相加模型分析时间序列资料, 在控制与时间有关的长期趋势、季节趋势及与时间有关的混杂因素基础上, 分析杭州市2006-2008年每年5月1日-10月31日间的气温、气压、湿度、云量、降水量、能见度、风速、地表温度等气象因素对感染性腹泻日发病数的影响。

结果最高温度、湿度、气压、风速、40 cm地表温度与腹泻日发病数间的关联有统计学意义。

结论气温、湿度、气压、风速、地表温度等气象因素对感染性腹泻日发病数可能有影响。

Abstract:
Objectives To assess the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of infectious diarrhea in Hangzhou.

Methods A generalized additive modeling was used to analyze the data of meteorological factors and the number of infectious diarrhea patients occurred in May 1 to Oct 31 in 2006-2008.Under the control of time-related long-term and seasonal trends and confounding factors, the effect of meteorological factors were analyzed, such as the air temperature, air pressure, humidity, cloud cover, precipitates, visibility, wind speed, and surface temperature at the time while the infectious diarrhea cases occurred.

Results The association between the highest air temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and 40 cm surface temperature with the occurrence of infectious diarrhea cases was statistically significant.

Conclusions Meteorological factors including air temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed, and surface temperature might affect the occurrence of infectious diarrhea cases.

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