孙庆华, 杜宗豪, 陈晨, 莫杨, 袁大勇, 李湉湉. 2008-2013年冬季北京市能见度变化特征及影响因素[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2013, 3(6): 502-506.
    引用本文: 孙庆华, 杜宗豪, 陈晨, 莫杨, 袁大勇, 李湉湉. 2008-2013年冬季北京市能见度变化特征及影响因素[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2013, 3(6): 502-506.
    Sun Qinghua, Du Zonghao, Chen Chen, Mo Yang, Yuan Dayong, Li Tiantian. Variation of Visibility in Winter and its Influencing Factors in Beijing in 2008-2013[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2013, 3(6): 502-506.
    Citation: Sun Qinghua, Du Zonghao, Chen Chen, Mo Yang, Yuan Dayong, Li Tiantian. Variation of Visibility in Winter and its Influencing Factors in Beijing in 2008-2013[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2013, 3(6): 502-506.

    2008-2013年冬季北京市能见度变化特征及影响因素

    Variation of Visibility in Winter and its Influencing Factors in Beijing in 2008-2013

    • 摘要:
      目的  探讨北京市冬季能见度的变化特征及影响因素。
      方法  对2008-2013年北京市冬季能见度的年、月、日以及小时变化特征进行分析。利用SPSS 20.2进行Spearman相关、偏相关分析, 探讨能见度与温度、相对湿度、气压、风速之间的关系。最后用R语言构建能见度与其相关性较高的气象因素间的多元线性回归方程。
      结果  2008-2013年, 北京市冬季平均能见度在16~21 km之间, 能见度最高的为2010-2011年, 最低的为2012-2013年。然而并未发现12-2月能见度月均值发生有规律的变化。能见度小时观测值由高到低为:6:00、12:00、0:00、18:00。能见度与风速、温度、大气压力呈正相关, 偏相关系数分别为0.429、0.085、0.320;与PM2.5、相对湿度呈负相关, 偏相关系数分别为:-0.379、-0.532。多元线性回归方程为:(Y:能见度; X1:风速; X2:相对湿度; X3:气压)。
      结论  本研究获得了2008-2013年冬季北京能见度变化特征并确定其3个重要影响因素, 为能见度的预报乃至空气污染的健康预警提供必要的理论依据。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives  To explore the trend of visibility in the winter in Beijing and its influencing factors.
      Methods  The annual, monthly, daily and hourly variation of visibility was analyzed by performing Spearman's correlation analysis and partial correlation was analyzed with SPSS to investigate the relationship between the visibility with temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed. Finally, a multiple linear regression equation for visibility was constructed by using R language.
      Results  The average visibility in the winter of 2008-2013 in Beijing was 16~21 km. The highest visibility was in 2010-2011 and the lowest was in 2012-2013. However, there was no obvious regular change of monthly average visibility. The visibility observed hourly in a descending order was at:6:00, 12:00, 0:00 and 18:00. The visibility was positively correlated with wind speed, temperature and atmospheric pressure with a partial correlation coefficient of 0.429, 0.085 and 0.320 respectively. The visibility was negatively correlated with PM2.5 and relative humidity with a partial correlation coefficient of -0.379 and -0.532 respectively. The multiple linear regression equation was Y=-255.0+19.35X1-0.26X2+2.73X3 (Y:visibility; X1:wind speed; X2:relative humidity; X3:barometric pressure).
      Conclusions  The trend of variation and key influencing factors for visibility in winter in Beijing were obtained in this study. The results provided theoretical basis for the forecast of visibility and the early warning of health-related risks.

       

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