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    2016—2019年四川省自贡市极端气温与交通伤害120急救量的关联

    Association between extreme temperatures and volume of emergency medical services for traffic injuries in Zigong, Sichuan Province, China, 2016—2019

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 分析2016—2019年四川省自贡市极端气温对交通伤害的影响, 为制定针对极端气温相关的交通伤害干预策略提供参考。
      方法 收集自贡市2016年1月1日—2019年12月31日的每日气象数据及交通伤害数据, 采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析极端气温与交通伤害急救量的关联, 计算归因分数(AF), 并按性别、年龄进行分层分析。
      结果 本研究共收集了11 159例交通伤害病例。极端气温与交通伤害风险的增加相关, 极端高温在lag05 d时风险最高, 相对危险度(RR)为1.865(95%CI: 1.253~2.775);在lag9 d时极端低温的效应值最大, RR为1.024(95%CI: 1.001~1.048)。极端气温对不同性别交通伤害急救量均有影响, 极端高温和极端低温对男性最高效应值分别出现在lag05 d和lag8 d, RR分别为1.946(95%CI: 1.238~3.059)和1.029(95%CI: 1.003~1.055), 极端高温对女性的最高效应值出现在lag014 d, RR为2.273(95%CI: 1.053~4.910)。年龄分层中, 极端高温和极端低温对≥65岁人群的影响更为明显, 分别在lag014 d和lag8 d风险最高, RR分别为3.196(95%CI: 1.128~9.055)和1.053(95%CI: 1.001~1.107)。极端高温呈现较高的归因负担, AF为1.41%(95%eCI: 0.09%~2.45%); 女性和≥65岁人群的极端高温归因负担较高, AF分别为1.52%(95%eCI: 0.01%~2.68%)和2.07%(95%eCI: 0.02%~3.47%)。
      结论 极端高温与人群交通伤害风险之间存在关联, 且女性、≥65岁人群更脆弱, 研究结果对降低重点人群在极端高温期间的交通伤害风险, 制定有针对性的防护措施具有重要公共卫生意义。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To analyze the effects of extreme temperatures on traffic injuries in Zigong, Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2019, and to provide a reference for developing intervention strategies for extreme temperature-related traffic injuries.
      Methods Daily meteorological data and volume of emergency medical services for traffic injuries in Zigong from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019, were collected. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the association between extreme temperatures and volume of emergency medical services for traffic injuries. The attributable fraction (AF) was calculated, and stratified analyses were performed by sex and age.
      Results A total of 11 159 traffic injury cases were collected. Extreme temperatures were associated with an increased risk of traffic injuries. The greatest effect of extreme high temperatures occurred at lag 0-5 d, with a relative risk (RR) of 1.865 (95% confidence interval CI: 1.253-2.775). The greatest effect of extreme low temperatures occurred at lag 9 d, with an RR of 1.024 (95% CI: 1.001-1.048). Extreme temperatures affected the volume of emergency medical services for traffic injuries for both sexes. For males, the greatest effects of extreme high and low temperatures were observed at lag 0-5 d and lag 8 d, with RRs of 1.946 (95% CI: 1.238-3.059) and 1.029 (95% CI: 1.003-1.055), respectively. For females, the greatest effect of extreme high temperatures occurred at lag 0-14 d, with an RR of 2.273 (95% CI: 1.053-4.910). In age-stratified analysis, the effects of extreme high and low temperatures were greater for individuals aged ≥65 years, with the greatest effects observed at lag 0-14 d and lag 8 d, and RRs of 3.196 (95% CI: 1.128-9.055) and 1.053 (95% CI: 1.001-1.107), respectively. Extreme high temperatures presented a higher attributable burden, with an AF of 1.41% (95% empirical CI eCI: 0.09%-2.45%). The attributable burden of extreme high temperatures was higher among females and individuals aged ≥65 years, with AFs of 1.52% (95% eCI: 0.01%-2.68%) and 2.07% (95% eCI: 0.02%-3.47%), respectively.
      Conclusion Extreme high temperatures are associated with the risk of traffic injuries among the population, with females and individuals aged 65 years and older being particularly vulnerable. The findings have important public health implications for reducing traffic injury risks among key populations during periods of extreme high temperatures and developing targeted protective measures.

       

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