大气细颗粒物诱发心肌梗死及心力衰竭的风险分析

    Analysis of myocardial infarction and heart failure risks induced by exposure to ambient fine particulate matter

    • 摘要:
      目的 定量分析大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter, PM2.5)与心肌梗死和心力衰竭的关联性并了解健康风险的地域差异性。
      方法 本文汇总万方、维普、知网、Web of science、Pubmed、Cochrane library数据库中2005年以来有关大气PM2.5浓度与心肌梗死及心力衰竭关联性的环境流行病学研究,运用Meta分析获取合并效应值以判断大气PM2.5暴露是否是两种疾病的风险因素并得到定量风险数据。与此同时进行亚组分析、灵敏度分析和发表偏倚检验,分析结果的稳定性及异质性的主要来源。
      结果 当大气PM2.5质量浓度每升高10 μg/m3时,心肌梗死和心力衰竭整体风险分别提升1.7%(95%CI:1.1%~2.4%)和3.1%(95%CI:2.0%~4.2%)。国家经济发展水平和地域因素是大气PM2.5引发心肌梗死风险的主要异质性来源之一。大气PM2.5质量浓度每增加10 μg/m3, 中国南方地区、中国北方地区、中国整体、发达国家和发展中国家心肌梗死疾病患病风险分别增加3.1%(95%CI:1.8%~4.5%)、1.8%(95%CI:0.4%~3.3%)、2.1%(95%CI:1.1%~3.0%)、1.5%(95%CI:0.9%~2.1%)、1.8%(95%CI:0.9%~2.6%)。地域因素同样是大气PM2.5引发心力衰竭风险的主要异质性来源之一。大气PM2.5质量浓度每升高10 μg/m3,中国南方地区、中国北方地区、中国整体、发达国家和发展中国家心力衰竭疾病患病风险分别增加6.6%(95%CI:2.8%~10.4%)、1.2%(95%CI:0.4%~2.0%)、3.2%(95%CI:1.3%~5.2%)、3.1%(95%CI:2.0%~3.8%)、2.8%(95%CI:1.1%~4.5%)。心肌梗死的Meta分析结果稳定可靠且发表偏倚对合并效应值影响不显著,而发表偏倚对大气PM2.5引发心力衰竭风险研究结果的影响显著。
      结论 大气PM2.5为心肌梗死和心力衰竭的危险因素,且其诱发两种疾病的风险呈现显著的地域差异。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To quantitatively analyze the associations between ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and the risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure, and to examine the geographic heterogeneity of these health risks.
      Methods This article summarized environmental epidemiological studies on the associations of ambient PM2.5 concentrations with myocardial infarction and heart failure since 2005 from databases including Wanfang, VIP, CNKI, Web of Science, PubMed, and Cochrane Library. Meta-analysis was performed to estimate pooled effect sizes, evaluate whether ambient PM2.5 exposure is a risk factor for the two diseases, and obtain quantitative risk estimates. Subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias test were conducted to assess the robustness of results and the major sources of heterogeneity.
      Results For every 10 μg/m3 increase in ambient PM2.5 mass concentration, the overall risks of myocardial infarction and heart failure increased by an average of 1.7% (95% confidence interval CI: 1.1%-2.4%) and 3.1% (95%CI: 2.0%-4.2%), respectively. The level of national economic development and geographical factors were identified as major sources of heterogeneity for the PM2.5-induced risk of myocardial infarction. Specifically, for every 10 μg/m3 increase in ambient PM2.5 mass concentration, the risk of myocardial infarction increased by 3.1% (95%CI: 1.8%-4.5%) in South China, 1.8% (95%CI: 0.4%-3.3%) in North China, 2.1% (95%CI: 1.1%-3.0%) in China, 1.5% (95%CI: 0.9%-2.1%) in developed countries, and 1.8% (95%CI: 0.9%-2.6%) in developing countries. Geographical factors were major sources of heterogeneity for the PM2.5-induced risk of heart failure. For every 10 μg/m3 increase in ambient PM2.5 mass concentration, the risk of heart failure increased by 6.6% (95%CI: 2.8%-10.4%) in South China, 1.2% (95%CI: 0.4%-2.0%) in North China, 3.2% (95%CI: 1.3%-5.2%) in China, 3.1% (95%CI: 2.0%-3.8%) in developed countries, and 2.8% (95%CI: 1.1%-4.5%) in developing countries. The meta-analysis of myocardial infarction showed stable and reliable results, and publication bias had no significant impact on the pooled effect size. In contrast, publication bias significantly affected the studies on the risk of heart failure induced by ambient PM2.5.
      Conclusion Exposure to ambient PM2.5 is a risk factor for both myocardial infarction and heart failure, and the associated risks present remarkable geographic heterogeneity.

       

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