高级检索

    2016—2022年北京市大兴区热浪对居民非意外死亡的影响

    Effect of heat waves on non-accidental death among residents in Daxing district, Beijing, China, 2016—2022

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 评估热浪对大兴区居民非意外死亡的影响。
      方法 收集2016—2022年北京市大兴区5—9月逐日气象监测数据和同期死亡个案数据, 选取日平均气温的第90、92.5、95百分位数作为阈值温度, 以阈值温度分别持续2~4 d作为热浪的定义, 分别简称为HW1~HW9。应用时间分层病例交叉设计方法与分布滞后非线性模型相结合定量分析热浪对居民非意外死亡的影响。
      结果 在滞后0~7 d时, HW1~HW9均会增加居民非意外死亡风险, 其中HW4(阈值温度为第92.5百分位数且持续时间≥2 d)时, 居民非意外死亡风险升高, 其RR(95%CI)为1.50(1.28, 1.76);热浪对年龄别为65~74岁和≥75岁人群有显著影响, 其RR(95%CI)分别为1.64(1.17, 2.30)和1.48(1.20, 1.83);热浪对女性、男性人群均有显著影响, 其RR(95%CI)分别为1.62(1.28, 2.06)和1.41(1.14, 1.75)。HW9(阈值温度为第95百分位数且持续时间≥4 d)时, 对居民非意外死亡所造成的影响最大, 其RR(95%CI)为1.76(1.29, 2.39);热浪对≤64岁、65~74岁、≥75岁人群均可产生显著影响, 其RR(95%CI)分别为2.08(1.05, 4.14)、2.12(1.12, 4.03)和1.54(1.04, 2.28);热浪对女性人群有显著影响, 其RR(95%CI)为2.19(1.40, 3.41)。
      结论 热浪会增加大兴区居民的死亡风险, 其中, 65岁及以上人群和女性群体尤为敏感。当温度超过更高阈值且持续时间较长(≥4 d)时, 居民非意外死亡的风险更大。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To assess the effect of heat waves on non-accidental death among residents in Daxing district.
      Methods The daily meteorological data and the daily death data of Daxing district, Beijing from May to September in 2016—2022 were collected. Heat waves were defined as durations of threshold temperatures (the 90th, 92.5th and 95th percentiles of daily mean temperature) for two to four days, abbreviated as HW1-HW9. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantitatively analyze the effect of heat waves on non-accidental death among residents.
      Results At a lag of 0-7 days, HW1-HW9 could increase the risk of non-accidental death among residents. Notably, HW4 (with a threshold temperature at the 92.5th percentile for a duration of ≥2 days) was associated with an increased risk of non-accidental death, with a risk ratio (RR) (95% confidence interval CI) of 1.50 (1.28, 1.76). Heat waves exhibited significant effects on populations aged 65-74 years and those aged ≥75 years, with RRs (95%CI) of 1.64 (1.17, 2.30) and 1.48 (1.20, 1.83), respectively. Heat waves also significantly impacted non-accidental death in both genders, with RRs (95% CI) of 1.62 (1.28, 2.06) for females and 1.41 (1.14, 1.75) for males. The most significant effect on the non-accidental death of residents was seen with HW9 (with a threshold temperature at the 95th percentile for a duration of ≥4 days), with an RR (95%CI) of 1.76 (1.29, 2.39). Heat waves had a significant effect on non-accidental death across all age groups: ≤64 years (RR=2.08, 95%CI: 1.05-4.14), 65-74 years (RR=2.12, 95%CI: 1.12-4.03), and ≥75 years (RR=1.54, 95%CI: 1.04-2.28). Heat waves also showed a significant effect on females (RR=2.19, 95%CI: 1.40-3.41).
      Conclusion Heat waves increase the risk of death among residents in Daxing district, Beijing, with the elderly (≥65 years) and females being the most vulnerable populations. When temperatures exceed higher thresholds for prolonged durations (≥4 days), the risk of non-accidental death is greater.

       

      • HTML全文
      • 参考文献(17)
      • 相关文章
      • 施引文献
    • 资源附件(0)

    /

    返回文章
    返回