基于人群非意外死亡数的太原市空气质量健康指数构建研究

    Research on the construction of air quality health index for Taiyuan City, China based on non-accidental mortality

    • 摘要:
      目的 基于太原市大气污染对人群非意外死亡数的影响,构建太原市空气质量健康指数(air quality health inedx,AQHI),并与空气质量指数(air quality index,AQI)进行对比,评价其预测健康风险的能力。
      方法 收集2017—2021年太原市大气污染物浓度、人群每日死亡资料和气象资料,利用广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)分析大气污染物和气象因素与非意外死亡风险的暴露-反应关系,分别用标准方法和主成分分析法(principal component analysis,PCA)构建AQHI,通过与AQI对比,评价其预测健康风险的能力。
      结果 大气污染物PM2.5、SO2、NO2和O3在最强滞后效应时,浓度每升高10 μg/m3,人群非意外死亡人数分别增加0.56%(95%CI:0.26%~0.87%)、1.43%(95%CI:0.97%~1.91%)、0.91%(95%CI:0.27%~1.54%)和0.34%(95%CI:0.06%~0.63%)。大气污染物主成分1、2对人群非意外死亡的最强滞后效应分别为0.95%(95%CI:0.51%~1.38%)和0.48%(95%CI:0.24%~0.72%)。与AQI相比,两种方法构建的AQHI的预测能力均提高,其中标准方法构建的AQHI能更好地反映大气污染物对当地居民非意外死亡的影响。
      结论 太原市大气PM2.5、SO2、NO2和O3对人群非意外死亡风险有影响,其中SO2对不同人群非意外死亡的滞后效应最强。与主成分分析法构建的AQHI相比,标准方法构建的AQHI能更好地预测大气污染对人群非意外死亡风险的影响。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To construct an air quality health index (AQHI) for Taiyuan City, China based on the impact of air pollution on non-accidental mortality, compare AQHI with the air quality index (AQI), and evaluate their abilities to predict health risks.
      Methods Data on air pollutant concentrations, daily mortality, and meteorological factors in Taiyuan City from 2017 to 2021 were collected. A generalized additive model was used to analyze the exposure-response relationships between air pollutants, meteorological factors, and non-accidental mortality risk. AQHI was constructed using both standard method and principal component analysis. AQHI was compared with AQI to evaluate their abilities to predict health risks.
      Results With the strongest lag effect, for every 10 μg/m3 increase in the concentrations of PM2.5, SO2, NO2, and O3, non-accidental mortality increased by 0.56% (95% confidence interval CI: 0.26%-0.87%), 1.43% (95%CI: 0.97%-1.91%), 0.91% (95%CI: 0.27%-1.54%), and 0.34% (95%CI: 0.06%-0.63%), respectively. The strongest lag effects of the first and second principal components of air pollutants on non-accidental mortality were 0.95% (95%CI: 0.51%-1.38%) and 0.48% (95%CI 0.24%-0.72%), respectively. Compared with AQI, the predictive ability of AQHI constructed using both method was improved, with the AQHI based on the standard method better reflecting the impact of air pollutants on non-accidental mortality in local residents.
      Conclusion The atmospheric pollutants PM2.5, SO2, NO2, and O3 in Taiyuan City can affect the risk of non-accidental mortality, with SO2 showing the strongest lag effect on non-accidental mortality across different populations. Compared to the AQHI constructed using principal component analysis, the AQHI built using the standard method can better predict the impact of air pollution on the risk of non-accidental mortality.

       

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