碳中和目标下减污降碳协同发展与人体健康风险的关系

    Relationship between integrated pollution and carbon reduction and human health risks under the carbon neutrality goal

    • 摘要: 目的 探究中国近年来碳排放与大气污染物排放的耦合协调度及影响因素,评估减污降碳政策下我国因细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM2.5)长期暴露导致的死亡负担。方法 基于耦合协调度模型(coupling coordination degree model)和面板回归模型探究我国碳排放量与大气污染物时空分布、耦合协调度以及影响因素,利用全球暴露-死亡模型(global exposure mortality model, GEMM)评估2014—2019年我国因PM2.5长期暴露导致的5种主要疾病(缺血性心脏病、中风、慢性阻塞性肺病、肺癌和下呼吸道感染)过早死亡人数。结果 2006—2020年我国大气污染物排放总量逐年下降,而碳排放量尽管增速放缓,仍呈现上升趋势。我国减污降碳协同治理水平正在提升,但区域间耦合协调水平差异明显;能源消费结构、人均GDP和交通运输结构是影响我国减污降碳耦合协调度的关键因素。2014—2019年我国归因于PM2.5长期暴露导致的年平均过早死亡人数为137.86(95%CI:119.72~157.40)万人,其中缺血性心脏病、慢性阻塞性肺病和中风是主要疾病负担,分别占43.1%、20.1%和19.0%。结论 减污降碳政策在环境治理方面取得了显著成效,但区域间发展仍不均衡,对人体健康的协同效应尚需进一步强化。未来应进一步优化政策设计,不仅要缩小区域差异,还应更加注重将减污降碳与人体健康的协同关系纳入治理框架。

       

      Abstract: Objective To assess the coupling coordination degree and its influencing factors between carbon emission and atmospheric pollutant emission in China in recent years, and to evaluate the burden of death from long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under pollution and carbon reduction policies. Methods This study employed the coupling coordination degree model and panel regression model to examine the spatial-temporal distribution of and the coupling coordination degree between carbon emissions and atmospheric pollutants as well as the influencing factors in China. The global exposure mortality model was used to estimate the number of premature deaths from five major diseases (ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infection) attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure in China from 2014 to 2019. Results From 2006 to 2020, total atmospheric pollutant emissions in China decreased annually, while carbon emissions continued to rise at a slower growth rate. Coordinated governance for pollution and carbon reduction improved overall, although significant regional disparities in the coupling coordination level persisted. Energy consumption structure, per capita GDP, and transportation structure were key factors influencing the coupling coordination degree between pollution and carbon reduction. Between 2014 and 2019, mean annual premature deaths attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure in China were estimated at 1.378 6 (95% confidence interval: 1.197 2, 1.574 0) million, primarily from ischemic heart disease (43.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (20.1%), and stroke (19.0%). Conclusion Pollution and carbon reduction policies have made significant progress in improving environmental governance. However, substantial regional disparities persist, and the health co-benefits needs to be further strengthened. Future policy design should focus on reducing regional disparities and incorporating the synergistic relationship between pollution and carbon reduction and human health into governance frameworks.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回