Margins模型及其在流行病学交互作用分析中的应用

    Marginal effect model and its application in interaction analysis in epidemiology

    • 摘要: 边际效应(margins)模型作为一种基于回归的边际效应估计方法,近年来在环境健康研究中展现出独特的交互作用识别能力,尤其适用于揭示复杂暴露组合下多元交互结构的方向与强度。本文系统梳理了margins模型在环境流行病学领域的理论基础与实际应用,结合多种重金属混合暴露研究案例,探讨其在不同健康结局中的适用性、建模策略及解释优势。与传统交互项回归相比,margins模型可在控制协变量基础上定量刻画三元及以上交互结构,并提供明确的方向性判断;相较贝叶斯核机器回归、加权分位数和回归等非参数模型,其在高阶交互构建与亚群体分层解释方面具备良好扩展性。尽管该方法在非线性建模、高维变量选择与可视化表达方面仍存在一定局限,但其与贝叶斯方法、惩罚回归与机器学习技术的融合正在拓展其理论边界与应用前景。本文认为,margins 模型有望在未来多暴露-多结局的研究框架中成为识别关键交互结构、支持因果推断与风险分层的核心工具。

       

      Abstract: The marginal effect (margins) model, a regression-based approach for estimating marginal effects, has emerged as a promising tool for assessing complex interaction structures in environmental health studies in recent years. This model is particularly suited for uncovering the direction and magnitude of multivariable interaction structures under complex combined exposures. This review systematically evaluates the theoretical foundations and practical applications of the margins model in environmental epidemiology. Drawing on case studies involving heavy metal mixtures, we illustrate its applicability, modeling strategies, and interpretative advantages across different health outcomes. Compared to traditional regressions with interaction terms, the margins model quantitatively characterizes higher-order interactions involving three or more variables while controlling covariates, and provides explicit directional inference. In contrast to nonparametric models such as Bayesian kernel machine regression and weighted quantile sum regression, the margins model offers superior scalability for modeling high-order interactions and explaining subgroup stratifications. Although it has limitations in nonlinear modeling, high-dimensional variable selection, and visualization, the integration of margins model with Bayesian method, penalized regression, and machine learning is expanding its theoretical scope and application potential. We conclude that the margins model holds significant promise as a core analytical tool for disentangling key interaction structures, supporting causal inference, and facilitating risk stratification in future research with multi-exposure multi-outcome frameworks.

       

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