BKMR模型在环境健康研究中的应用

    Application of Bayesian kernel machine regression model in environmental health research

    • 摘要: 贝叶斯核机器回归(Bayesian kernel machine regression, BKMR)模型是一种先进的贝叶斯半参数方法,已广泛用于环境流行病学中多种污染物混合暴露对健康影响的研究。相比传统线性回归或加权分位数和回归(weighted quantile sum regression, WQS),BKMR模型能够有效捕捉非线性暴露-反应关系、暴露物间的交互作用,并缓解多重共线性问题,是研究复杂暴露组合效应的重要工具。本文系统介绍了BKMR模型的理论基础、R语言实现流程,并基于多个实际案例,展示其在分析重金属混合暴露对肝脏、甲状腺及肾脏功能影响中的具体应用。通过逐段代码展示与图形解读,本研究详细阐释了模型输出的结果含义及其公共卫生解释路径。尽管BKMR在健康效应评估中具有强大能力,但仍存在计算耗时高、结果解读门槛大、可视化不直观等问题。为此,本文也探讨了包括结点压缩(knots)策略、优化算法在内的模型发展方向。综上,BKMR模型为解析多因素混合暴露健康风险提供了强有力支持,并为方法学创新与环境健康政策制定提供理论依据与技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) model is an advanced semi-parametric Bayesian method that has been widely applied in environmental epidemiology to assess the health effects of mixed exposure to multiple pollutants. Compared to traditional linear regression or weighted quantile sum regression models, the BKMR model can effectively capture nonlinear exposure-response relationships, detect interactions between pollutants, and address multicollinearity, making it a powerful tool for evaluating the joint effect of exposure to various pollutants. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the theoretical foundation of BKMR model and its implementation procedure in R. Additionally, this study demonstrates the application of BKMR through multiple practical case studies, highlighting its utility in analyzing the effects of mixed exposure to heavy metals on liver, thyroid, and renal function. Through step-by-step code demonstration and graphical interpretation, we provide a detailed explanation of the model output and its public health implications. Although BKMR demonstrates considerable potential in health effect assessments, it still faces challenges such as high computational demands, steep learning curve in result interpretation, and limited visualization clarity. Therefore, we also discuss recent methodological advancements such as knot compression and algorithm optimization. In conclusion, BKMR model provides robust support for evaluating health risks associated with mixed exposure to multiple pollutants and provides a theoretical and technical foundation for methodological innovations and policy formulation in environmental health.

       

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