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    淄博市空气质量改善背景下PM2.5污染降低的健康效益评价

    Health benefit evaluation of PM2.5 pollution reduction under the background of air quality improvement in Zibo, China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探究2014—2022年淄博市细颗粒物(fine particulate matter, PM2.5)污染引起的死亡负担和健康经济损失, 为淄博市大气污染防控政策制定提供科学依据。
      方法 收集2014—2022年淄博市PM2.5年均浓度数据、常住人口数量、国内生产总值(gross domestic product, GDP)、人均可支配收入和死亡数据。基于全球暴露死亡模型(global exposure mortality model, GEMM)评估PM2.5污染对淄博市居民死亡负担的影响, 并采用统计生命价值法(value of statistical life, VOSL)对相应的健康经济损失进行估算。
      结果 2014—2022年淄博市PM2.5年均浓度下降率为8.67%, 但年均浓度仍高于我国环境空气质量二级标准(35 μg/m3)。PM2.5污染已对淄博市居民带来了严重的健康危害和经济损失: 2014—2022年PM2.5污染导致的全因、非意外、心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病健康经济损失分别共计263.52(95%CI: 202.52~321.91)、248.76(95%CI: 191.17~303.89)、136.64(95%CI: 105.00~166.95)和18.65 (95%CI: 14.34~22.77)亿元, 占当地GDP的比例分别为0.71%、0.67%、0.37%和0.05%。随着PM2.5水平下降, 归因死亡人数与健康经济损失均呈下降趋势。若PM2.5年均浓度降至世界卫生组织(World Health Organi zation, WHO)最新推荐的空气质量标准值(5 μg/m3), 淄博市因PM2.5污染导致的死亡人数将减少37 685人, 经济损失将减少257.99亿元。
      结论 未来需不断优化空气质量, 尤其需要关注心脑血管疾病高危人群, 以更好的保障淄博市居民健康。2014—2022年, 淄博市大气PM2.5浓度显著下降, 造成的健康损失和经济损失随之减少, PM2.5污染控制可获取健康效益和经济收益。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective This study aims to investigate the mortality burden and health economic health losses attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Zibo from 2014 to 2022, and to provide scientific basis for air pollution prevention and control policy making.
      Methods The annual average concentration of PM2.5, the number of permanent residents, gross regional product, disposable income per capita and mortality data were collected from 2014 to 2022. The global exposure mortality model (GEMM) was used to estimate the impact of PM2.5 pollution on residents' mortality burden and the value of statistical life was used to quantify the associated health economic losses.
      Results In Zibo, the average annual concentration decrease rate of PM2.5, during 2014—2022 was 8.67%, but the average annual concentration was still higher than the national secondary annual PM2.5 standard (35 μg/m3). PM2.5 pollution has caused serious health hazards and economic losses for residents in Zibo. The total health economic losses of PM2.5-related all-cause, non-accidental, circulatory disease and respiratory disease from 2014 to 2022 was 263.52(95%CI: 202.52-321.91), 248.76(95%CI: 191.17-303.89), 136.64 (95%CI: 105.00-166.95) and 18.65(95%CI: 14.34-22.77)billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 0.71%, 0.67%, 0.37% and 0.05% of the local GDP. As PM2.5 concentration decreased, both attributable deaths and health economic losses showed a declining trend. If the annual average concentration of PM2.5 could be reduced to the latest Air Quality Guideline standard value (5 μg/m3) recommended by the World Health Organization, the number of PM2.5-related deaths would be decreased by 37 685, and the health economic loss would be decreased by 257.99 billion yuan in Zibo.
      Conclusion From 2014 to 2022, PM2.5 concentration in Zibo decreased significantly, resulting in reduced health loss and economic loss. Controlling PM2.5 pollution can obtain health and economic benefits.

       

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