2019—2020年天津市PM2.5组分与绿化环境暴露水平对缺血性脑卒中复发的时间序列分析研究

    Association of PM2.5 components and green environment exposure levels with the recurrence of ischemic stroke in Tianjin, China: a time series analysis from 2019 to 2020

    • 摘要:
      目的 评估PM2.5组分暴露与缺血性脑卒中(ischemic stroke, IS)复发的关联, 并探讨绿化环境的调节作用。
      方法 收集2019年1月1日至2020年12月31日天津市的IS复发住院患者数据、空气污染物和气象条件数据。采用基于Poisson回归的广义线性模型进行时间序列分析, 量化PM2.5组分每增加一个四分位数间距(interquartile range, IQR)对IS复发入院的超额危险度。根据归一化植被指数(normalized differential vegetation index, NDVI)分层, 分析不同绿化水平下PM2.5组分对IS复发的影响。
      结果 短期暴露于PM2.5组分中的元素碳(element carbon, EC)和Zn与IS复发风险呈正相关, Fe在累积滞后1~3 d与IS复发风险呈正相关, 且三者均在累积滞后3 d时效应最为显著。EC、Zn和Fe暴露每升高1个IQR浓度时, IS复发入院风险分别增加4.64%(95% CI: 2.63~6.69%)、4.22%(95%CI: 2.06~6.42%)和3.42%(95%CI: 0.52~6.41%)。在低绿化环境中, 有机碳(organic carbon, OC)、EC、Zn对IS复发的影响更为显著, 而高绿化环境则能有效缓解这些污染物的负面影响。
      结论 PM2.5组分中EC、Zn、Fe的升高会增加IS复发入院风险, 绿化具有潜在的保护作用。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To assess the association of PM2.5 component exposure with ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence, and to investigate the modulating effect of green environments.
      Methods Data on hospitalized patients with recurrent IS, air pollutants, and meteorological conditions in Tianjin from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020 were collected. A generalized linear model based on Poisson regression was employed for time series analysis to quantify the excess risk of IS recurrent hospital admissions associated with each IQR increase in PM2.5 components. The effects of PM2.5 components on IS recurrence were analyzed at different levels of greening, stratified by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI).
      Results Short-term exposure to PM2.5 components, including elemental carbon (EC) and zinc (Zn), showed a significantly positive association with the risk of IS recurrence. This association also held for iron (Fe) with a cumulative lag of 1 to 3 days. All three components showed the most significant effects at a cumulative lag of 3 days. For each IQR increase in EC, Zn, and Fe, the risk of IS recurrence-induced hospital admissions increased by 4.64% 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.63%-6.69%, 4.22% (95% CI: 2.06%-6.42%), and 3.42% (95% CI: 0.52%-6.41%), respectively. In low-greening environments, organic carbon (OC), EC, and Zn had more significant effects on IS recurrence, while the negative effects of these pollutants were effectively mitigated in high-greening environments.
      Conclusion Elevated levels of EC, Zn, and Fe in the PM2.5 components increase the risk of IS recurrence-induced hospital admissions, and greening exposure has a potentially protective effect.

       

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