高级检索

    北京市日均气温与日均相对湿度对食源性腹泻病例就诊量影响的时间序列分析

    A Time series analysis of the impact of daily temperature and daily relative humidity on the number of foodborne diarrhea visits in Beijing, China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探索日均气温与日均相对湿度对北京市食源性腹泻发病的健康效应。
      方法 收集2018—2023年北京市食源性腹泻病例逐日就诊数据与气象数据，采用分布滞后非线性模型建立日均气温、日均相对湿度与食源性腹泻病例就诊量之间的暴露-反应关系，同时控制时间趋势、星期几效应与节假日效应以及气象因素的混杂影响，分析日均气温、日均相对湿度对食源性腹泻发病风险的滞后效应与累积滞后效应。
      结果 日均气温、日均相对湿度与食源性腹泻发病人数之间的关联均呈非线性关系，食源性腹泻发病风险最低时所对应的日均气温和日均相对湿度分别为-5.7 ℃和38.4%，其健康效应主要来自高温、高湿。高温(P95：29.2 ℃)对食源性腹泻发病风险的滞后效应在暴露当天达到最大，相对危险度为3.45 (95%CI: 1.12~ 10.67)，高湿(P95：83.5%)对食源性腹泻发病风险的滞后效应无统计学意义；高温、高湿的累积滞后效应均在0~5 d达到最大，累积相对危险度分别为10.10 (95%CI: 2.23~45.71)、1.59 (95%CI: 1.06~2.40)。
      结论 高温、高湿可增加北京市食源性腹泻发病风险，且存在滞后效应。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To explore the health effects of daily temperature and daily relative humidity on the incidence of foodborne diarrhea in Beijing.
      Methods Based on daily data on visit number of foodborne diarrhea and meteorological factors in Beijing from 2018 to 2023, a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to establish the expose-response relationship between daily temperature, daily relative humidity and the visit number of foodborne diarrhea, while controlling for the time trend, day of the week effect, holiday effect, and the confounding effects of other meteorological factors. The lagged effects and cumulative lagged effects of daily temperature and daily relative humidity on the incidence of foodborne diarrhea were analyzed.
      Results The relationships between daily temperature, daily relative humidity and the visit number of foodborne diarrhea were non-linear. The daily temperature and daily relative humidity corresponding to the lowest risk of foodborne diarrhea were -5.7 ℃ and 38.4%, respectively. The health effects were mainly due to high temperature and high relative humidity. The lagged effect of high temperature (P95: 29.2 ℃) on the risk of foodborne diarrhea reached its maximum on the day of exposure, with a relative risk of 3.45 (95%CI: 1.12-10.67), while no statistically significant lag effect of high relative humidity (P95: 83.5%) was observed. Cumulative lagged effects of high temperature and high relative humidity reached the maximum at 0-5 d, and cumulative relative risk were 10.10 (95%CI: 2.23-45.71) and 1.59 (95%CI: 1.06~ 2.40), respectively.
      Conclusion Both of high temperature and high relative humidity can increase the risk of foodborne diarrhea visits in Beijing, with the presence of lag effects.

       

      • HTML全文
      • 参考文献(25)
      • 相关文章
      • 施引文献
    • 资源附件(0)

    /

    返回文章
    返回