俞浩, 朱方瑜, 万亚男, 汪庆庆, 丁震, 周金意. 江苏省大气PM2.5对人群神经系统疾病死亡的急性效应研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(11): 830-835. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.11.005
    引用本文: 俞浩, 朱方瑜, 万亚男, 汪庆庆, 丁震, 周金意. 江苏省大气PM2.5对人群神经系统疾病死亡的急性效应研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(11): 830-835. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.11.005
    YU Hao, ZHU Fang-yu, WAN Ya-nan, WANG Qing-qing, DING Zhen, ZHOU Jin-yi. Acute effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on death due to nervous system disease in Jiangsu Province, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(11): 830-835. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.11.005
    Citation: YU Hao, ZHU Fang-yu, WAN Ya-nan, WANG Qing-qing, DING Zhen, ZHOU Jin-yi. Acute effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on death due to nervous system disease in Jiangsu Province, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(11): 830-835. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.11.005

    江苏省大气PM2.5对人群神经系统疾病死亡的急性效应研究

    Acute effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on death due to nervous system disease in Jiangsu Province, China

    • 摘要:
      目的 估计江苏省大气PM2.5短期暴露对人群神经系统疾病死亡的急性效应。
      方法 数据使用江苏省13个设区市2016—2021年的环境监测、气象监测和居民死亡监测的资料。采用广义相加模型分析大气PM2.5日均质量浓度和神经系统疾病死亡的关联。使用多元Meta分析随机效应模型合并多个城市PM2.5与死亡风险的效应值。
      结果 2016—2021年江苏省大气PM2.5的日均质量浓度M(P25P75)为43.1(2.0,333.6)μg/m3,神经系统疾病日均死亡人数M(P25P75)为32(11,75)例。单污染物模型显示,lag07 d时PM2.5对人群神经系统疾病日死亡的影响最大,PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3,全人群神经系统疾病日死亡数增加1.26%(95%CI: 0.57%,1.95%)。双污染物模型中,效应值仍然具有统计学意义。女性和65岁及以上老年人群对PM2.5导致的神经系统疾病急性死亡较为敏感。PM2.5与神经系统疾病死亡的暴露反应关系曲线表现为非线性无阈值。
      结论 大气PM2.5的短期暴露可增加人群每日神经系统疾病的死亡,PM2.5对急性死亡的潜在威胁不容忽视。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To estimate the acute effect of short-term exposure to atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on death due to nervous system disease in Jiangsu Province of China.
      Methods Data were collected from environmental monitoring, meteorological monitoring, and resident death surveillance in 13 municipalities of Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2021. A generalized additive model was performed to evaluate the association between daily PM2.5 mass concentration and death due to nervous system disease, and a meta-analysis with a multivariate random effects model was performed to merge the effective values of PM2.5 and risk of death in multiple cities.
      Results In Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2021, the daily mean mass concentration of PM2.5M(P25, P75) was 43.1 (2.0, 333.6) μg/m3, and the average daily number of deaths due to nervous system diseaseM(P25, P75) was 32 (11, 75). The single-pollutant model showed that PM2.5 at lag07 day had the greatest impact on daily deaths due to nervous system disease, and for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration, the daily number of deaths due to nervous system disease was increased by 1.26% (95% CI: 0.57%, 1.95%). The effective value was still statistically significant in the double-pollutant model. Female and the elderly aged ≥65 years were more sensitive to acute death due to nervous system disease caused by PM2.5. The exposure-response relationship between PM2.5 and death due to nervous system disease was non-linear without threshold.
      Conclusion Short-term exposure to PM2.5 can result in an increase in daily deaths due to nervous system disease, and therefore, the potential threat of PM2.5 on acute death should not be neglected.

       

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