钱辉, 韩建广, 康文英, 张健, 王磊, 付桂琴. 河北衡水市气温与儿童流感就诊人数的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(9): 674-679. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.006
    引用本文: 钱辉, 韩建广, 康文英, 张健, 王磊, 付桂琴. 河北衡水市气温与儿童流感就诊人数的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(9): 674-679. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.006
    QIAN Hui, HAN Jian-guang, KANG Wen-ying, ZHANG Jian, WANG Lei, FU Gui-qin. Time-series analysis of air temperature and the number of children hospitalized with influenza in Hengshui, Hebei Province, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(9): 674-679. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.006
    Citation: QIAN Hui, HAN Jian-guang, KANG Wen-ying, ZHANG Jian, WANG Lei, FU Gui-qin. Time-series analysis of air temperature and the number of children hospitalized with influenza in Hengshui, Hebei Province, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(9): 674-679. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.006

    河北衡水市气温与儿童流感就诊人数的时间序列分析

    Time-series analysis of air temperature and the number of children hospitalized with influenza in Hengshui, Hebei Province, China

    • 摘要:
      目的 分析衡水市儿童流感就诊数据与气温之间的关系。
      方法 利用衡水市疾病预防控制中心2014—2019年儿童流感就诊资料, 采用分布滞后非线性模型, 分析衡水市气温与儿童流感就诊人数的暴露—反应关系。
      结果 冬季是儿童流感爆发的最集中时段, 占全年的57%, 其次春季占22%, 夏秋季发病人数较少; 气温对不同年龄段儿童流感就诊人数的影响存在差异, 在-5 ℃和-2 ℃时, 0~6岁幼儿累积效应均在滞后14 d时累积RR达到最大, 分别为9.998(95%CI: 3.259, 30.674)和5.468(95%CI: 1.777, 16.821), 7~14岁少儿累积效应无统计学意义; 32 ℃时, 幼儿和少儿分别在滞后14 d和11 d时累积RR达到最大, 分别为5.857(95%CI: 1.442, 23.785)、14.400(95%CI: 1.061, 195.422), 其中少儿对高温更为敏感。
      结论 低温、高温均能增加儿童流感发病风险, 且存在滞后效应。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To investigate the association between the number of children hospitalized with influenza and air temperature in Hengshui, Hebei Province, China.
      Methods Based on the data of children hospitalized with influenza registered in Hengshui Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2014 to 2019, the exposure-response relationship between air temperature and the number of children hospitalized with influenza in Hengshui was analyzed by the distributed lag nonlinear model.
      Results The outbreak of influenza in children was mainly observed in winter, accounting for 57% of all the year, followed by spring with 22%, with fewer cases in summer and autumn. The influence of air temperature on the number of children hospitalized with influenza varied across different ages. At the air temperature of -5 ℃ and -2 ℃, the cumulative effect of children aged 0-6 years reached the maximum cumulative relative risk at lag day 14, which were 9.998 (95%CI: 3.259, 30.674) and 5.468 (95%CI: 1.777, 16.821), respectively, while there was no significant difference in cumulative effect in children aged 7-14 years old. At the air temperature of 32℃, the maximum cumulative relative risk in infants and young children was observed at lag day 14 and lag day 11, respectively, which were 5.857 (95%CI: 1.442, 23.785) and 14.400 (95% CI: 1.061, 195.422), respectively. The young children were more sensitive to high temperature.
      Conclusion Both low and high temperatures can increase the risk of influenza in children, with a significant lag effects.

       

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