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    史珏鑫, 王天奇, 高摘星, 董少霞, 路凤. 北京市大气污染物对过敏性鼻炎门急诊量影响的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(9): 642-649, 667. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.002
    引用本文: 史珏鑫, 王天奇, 高摘星, 董少霞, 路凤. 北京市大气污染物对过敏性鼻炎门急诊量影响的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(9): 642-649, 667. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.002
    shu
    SHI Jue-xin, WANG Tian-qi, GAO Zhai-xing, DONG Shao-xia, LU Feng. Time series analysis of the effect of air pollutants on the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in Beijing, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(9): 642-649, 667. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.002
    Citation: SHI Jue-xin, WANG Tian-qi, GAO Zhai-xing, DONG Shao-xia, LU Feng. Time series analysis of the effect of air pollutants on the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in Beijing, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(9): 642-649, 667. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.09.002
    shu

    北京市大气污染物对过敏性鼻炎门急诊量影响的时间序列分析

    Time series analysis of the effect of air pollutants on the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in Beijing, China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探讨北京市大气污染物对过敏性鼻炎门急诊量的短期影响。
      方法 收集2016年1月1日—2019年12月31日北京市过敏性鼻炎门急诊就诊资料和同期大气污染及气象资料, 采用广义相加模型(GAM)分析大气污染物质量浓度和过敏性鼻炎门急诊量的关系及滞后效应, 同时根据过敏性鼻炎的流行规律按季度进行分层分析。
      结果 2016—2019年北京市过敏性鼻炎门急诊就诊总量为1 021 243人次, 平均每日就诊699人次。单污染物模型中, O3-8 h及NO2、PM2.5日均质量浓度每增加10 μg/m3, 过敏性鼻炎门急诊量在最强效应期超额危险度(excessive risk, ER)分别增加1.01%(95%CI: 0.41%, 1.61%)、4.82%(95%CI: 3.23%, 6.43%)、0.70%(95%CI: 0.25%, 1.15%), CO日均质量浓度每增加100 μg/m3, 过敏性鼻炎门急诊就诊量在最强效应期ER增加0.47%(95%CI: 0.08%, 0.86%)。CO、NO2、PM2.5引入SO2后双污染物模型效应明显增大, 且存在统计学意义。分层结果显示, O3-8 h、CO、NO2、SO2、PM10、PM2.5质量浓度对过敏性鼻炎门急诊量的最强效应期分别为第四季度lag07 d、第二季度lag0 d、第三季度lag03 d、第三季度lag01 d、第三季度lag0 d、第二季度lag0 d, ER值分别为3.92%(95%CI: 2.00%, 5.89%)、1.84%(95%CI: 0.96%, 2.73%)、7.18%(95%CI: 2.64%, 11.92%)、67.43%(95%CI: 32.06%, 112.27%)、1.33%(95%CI: 0.54%, 2.12%)、1.31%(95%CI: 0.65%, 1.98%)。
      结论 北京市大气污染物浓度对过敏性鼻炎门急诊量可能存在影响, 且具有滞后效应。应重点关注NO2的影响。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To investigate the short-term effect of air pollutants on the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in Beijing, China.
      Methods The data of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in Beijing from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019 were collected, and air pollution and meteorological data during the same period were collected as well. Generalized addition model (GAM) was performed to analyze the relationship between the mass concentrations of air pollutants and the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis as well as its lag effect. Meanwhile, a stratified analysis was conducted by quarter according to the epidemic pattern of allergic rhinitis.
      Results From 2016 to 2019, the total number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis was 1 021 243, with an average of 699 visits per day. In single-pollutant models, for every increase of 10 μg/m3 in the daily mean mass concentrations of O3-8 h, NO2, and PM2.5, excessive risk (ER) of the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in the strongest response period increased by 1.01% (95%CI: 0.41%, 1.61%), 4.82% (95% CI: 3.23%, 6.43%), and 0.70% (95% CI: 0.25%, 1.15%), respectively; for every increase of 100 μg/m3 in the daily mean mass concentration of CO, ER of the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis in the strongest response period increased by 0.47% (95% CI: 0.08%, 0.86%). After conducted by SO2, the effect of CO、NO2、PM2.5 in dual-pollutant models was increased statistically. The increases in the daily mean mass concentrations of air pollutants in the first quarter reduced their impacts on the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis, while the increases in the daily mean mass concentrations of air pollutants in the second and fourth quarters increased their impacts on the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis. Stratified results showed that the strongest response period of O3-8 h, CO, NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 on the number of outpatients and emergency visits respectively were lag07 d in the fourth quarter, lag0 d in the second quarter, lag03 d in the third quarter, lag01 d in the third quarter, lag0 d in the third quarter and lag0 d in the second quarter, and the ER were 3.92%(95%CI: 2.00%, 5.89%), 1.84%(95%CI: 0.96%, 2.73%), 7.18%(95%CI: 2.64%, 11.92%), 67.43%(95%CI: 32.06%, 112.27%), 1.33%(95%CI: 0.54%, 2.12%), 1.31%(95%CI: 0.65%, 1.98%), respectively.
      Conclusion The concentration of air pollutants in Beijing may affect the number of outpatients and emergency visits due to allergic rhinitis with a lag effect. Especially the impact of NO2 should be given special attention.

       

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