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    翟梦滢, 汤巧雨, 李永红, 吕祎然, 王裕, 施小明, 冉陆, 王姣. 气候要素对我国诺如病毒急性胃肠炎感染暴发的影响分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(3): 154-161. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.03.002
    引用本文: 翟梦滢, 汤巧雨, 李永红, 吕祎然, 王裕, 施小明, 冉陆, 王姣. 气候要素对我国诺如病毒急性胃肠炎感染暴发的影响分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2023, 13(3): 154-161. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.03.002
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    ZHAI Meng-ying, TANG Qiao-yu, LI Yong-hong, LYU Yi-ran, WANG Yu, SHI Xiao-ming, RAN Lu, WANG Jiao. Influence of climatic factors on the outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis caused by norovirus in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(3): 154-161. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.03.002
    Citation: ZHAI Meng-ying, TANG Qiao-yu, LI Yong-hong, LYU Yi-ran, WANG Yu, SHI Xiao-ming, RAN Lu, WANG Jiao. Influence of climatic factors on the outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis caused by norovirus in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2023, 13(3): 154-161. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2023.03.002
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    气候要素对我国诺如病毒急性胃肠炎感染暴发的影响分析

    Influence of climatic factors on the outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis caused by norovirus in China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探索气候要素对我国诺如病毒急性胃肠炎感染暴发(简称"人诺如病毒暴发")的影响, 为制定精细化防控措施提供科学依据。
      方法 收集中国2012—2018年人诺如病毒暴发的日病例报告信息及日气象资料。运用分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model, DLNM)识别人诺如病毒暴发与主要气候要素的关联。
      结果 2012—2018年, 中国共报告人诺如病毒暴发964次, 感染人数50 548例, 暴发具有显著冬春高发的季节特征。DLNM分析结果显示: 温度、湿度与人诺如病毒暴发呈负相关关系, 日均气温为-10 ℃时人诺如病毒暴发的健康风险最大(RR=2.18, 95%CI: 1.34~3.56);日均相对湿度为37%时, 人诺如病毒暴发的相对危险度最高(RR=1.16, 95%CI: 1.01~1.34)。降水与人诺如病毒暴发呈正相关关系, 日累积降水量达到100 mm时, RR值最高(RR=5.10, 95%CI: 1.70~15.36)。分层分析提示, 暖季时高日均气温、低相对湿度与冷季时低日均气温条件下会增加人诺如病毒暴发的7 d累积滞后风险。
      结论 暖季高温、高湿, 冷季低温的气候条件利于诺如病毒在人群中的传播。在气候变化背景下应综合考虑气候要素对人诺如病毒暴发的健康影响, 制定并实施有针对性的防控方案, 以降低由于诺如病毒急性胃肠炎所造成的疾病负担。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To investigate the influence of climatic factors on the outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis caused by norovirus (referred to as "human norovirus outbreaks") in China, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating precision prevention and control measures.
      Methods Daily case reports and daily meteorological data during human norovirus outbreaks in China from 2012 to 2018 were collected, and the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to identify the association between human norovirus outbreaks and main climatic factors.
      Results From 2012 to 2018, a total of 964 human norovirus outbreaks were reported in China, with 50 548 cases of infection in total. Human norovirus outbreaks in China showed seasonal characteristics of a higher incidence rate in winter and spring. DLNM analysis results showed that temperature and humidity were negatively correlated with human norovirus outbreaks, and the highest health risk of human norovirus outbreaks was observed at a daily mean temperature of -10 ℃ (risk ratio RR=2.18, 95% confidence interval CI: 1.34-3.56), while the highest relative risk of human norovirus outbreaks was observed at a mean relative humidity of 17% (RR=1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34). Precipitation was positively associated with human norovirus outbreaks, and the RR was the highest when daily cumulative precipitation reached 100 mm (RR=5.10, 95% CI: 1.70-15.36). In addition, stratified analysis implied that high average daily temperature and low relative humidity in the warm season and low average daily temperature in the cold season would increase the risk of a 7 d cumulative lag of human norovirus outbreaks.
      Conclusion The climatic conditions of high temperature and humidity in the warm season and low temperature in the cold season are conducive to the spread of norovirus in the population. In the context of climate change, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the health impact of climatic factors on human norovirus outbreaks and formulate targeted prevention and control strategies, so as to reduce the disease burden caused by acute gastroenteritis due to norovirus infection.

       

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