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    常州市大气PM2.5对人群脑血管病死亡的影响

    Effect of ambient PM2.5 on cerebrovascular mortality in the population of Changzhou city

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探讨常州市大气污染物PM2.5对居民脑血管病死亡的影响。
      方法 收集常州市2015年1月1日—2018年12月31日的居民全死因个案资料和同期的大气污染物、气象数据, 采用广义相加模型(generalized additive models, GAM)分析大气PM2.5对人群脑血管病死亡的影响。
      结果 2015—2018年, 常州市大气PM2.5年均浓度为50.1 μg/m3, PM2.5浓度超标天数占比15.7%(230/1 461);PM2.5滞后3日(lag3 d)浓度每增加10 μg/m3时, 全人群脑血管病、全人群男性脑血管病日死亡数分别增加0.56%(95%CI: 0.04%~1.08%)和0.79%(95%CI: 0.07%~1.52%), ≥65岁人群脑血管病、≥65岁人群男性脑血管病日死亡数分别增加0.63%(95%CI: 0.09%~1.18%)和0.95%(95%CI: 0.18%~1.73%)。
      结论 常州市大气PM2.5可显著增加人群脑血管病死亡风险。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To explore the effect of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) on cerebrovascular mortality in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, China.
      Methods The data of daily major ambient pollutants concentration, meteorological factors and the death cases of residents from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018 were collected in Changzhou. The generalized additive model(GAM) was conducted to analysis the effects of PM2.5 on cerebrovascular mortality.
      Results From 2015 to 2018, the average concentration of ambient PM2.5 in Changzhou was 50.1 μg/m3. The exceeding standard days of PM2.5 mass concentration accounted for 15.7%(230/1 461). When the ambient PM2.5 concentration (lag3 d) increased 10 μg/m3, the daily deaths of cerebrovascular disease in the whole population and in the male population increased by 0.56%(95%CI: 0.04% - 1.08%) and 0.79%(95%CI: 0.07% - 1.52%), respectively, and the daily deaths of cerebrovascular disease in the population aged 65 or older and in the male population aged 65 or older increased by 0.63%(95%CI: 0.09% - 1.18%) and 0.95%(95%CI: 0.18% - 1.73%), respectively.
      Conclusion Ambient PM2.5 in Changzhou has an impact on the death of cerebrovascular diseases, significantly increasing the risk of death.

       

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