Objective To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of female lung cancer incidence risk and their influence factors in China.

Methods The Global Burden of Disease data in 2016 were used to obtain the age-and gender-specific incidence of female lung cancer in 33 provinces of China in 1992-2016. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal trend evolution characteristics of female lung cancer incidence in different regions of China and evaluate the influencing factors of standardized incidence ratio(SIR) for female lung cancer in China.

Results Spatial correlation was observed for female lung cancer SIR in China and was affected by the interaction between time and space. The incidence risk of the disease in 14 provinces (42.42%) was greater than the overall level, with a posterior probability P(exp(u_i+v_i) >1) of >0.80. The results of univariate fitting based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal model showed that the passive rates, GDP (lag 5 years), coal consumption (lag 5 years), the proportion of elderly population and the number of kitchen ventilators(lag 5 years) were significantly associated with the female lung cancer SIR(P < 0.05), while other behaviors and environment factors such as smoking rate and SO₂ emission rate were not significantly associated with the female lung cancer SIR in China (P >0.05). After adjustment for the proportion of the elderly population, the multivariate spatiotemporal analysis showed that the number of kitchen ventilators in every 100 households (lag 5 years) was significantly associated with the female lung cancer SIR (risk ratio=0.998 4, 95% CI: 0.996 9-0.999 9), while other factors were not significantly associated with the female lung cancer SIR in China (P > 0.05).

Conclusion Female lung cancer shows a certain degree of spatial clustering in China during 1992-2016, and cooking oil fume exposure may be an influencing factor for the incidence of lung cancer in Chinese women.