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    李相鑫, 田欢, 李大磊, 张丹丹, 高衍新. 2019—2020年菏泽市大气污染物对人群死亡影响的时间序列分析评价所[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2022, 12(5): 383-387, 395. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2022.05.011
    引用本文: 李相鑫, 田欢, 李大磊, 张丹丹, 高衍新. 2019—2020年菏泽市大气污染物对人群死亡影响的时间序列分析评价所[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2022, 12(5): 383-387, 395. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2022.05.011
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    LI Xiang-xin, TIAN Huan, LI Da-lei, ZHANG Dan-dan, GAO Yan-xin. Time series analysis of the effect of ambient pollutants on population mortality in Heze, China, 2019—2020[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2022, 12(5): 383-387, 395. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2022.05.011
    Citation: LI Xiang-xin, TIAN Huan, LI Da-lei, ZHANG Dan-dan, GAO Yan-xin. Time series analysis of the effect of ambient pollutants on population mortality in Heze, China, 2019—2020[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2022, 12(5): 383-387, 395. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2022.05.011
    shu

    2019—2020年菏泽市大气污染物对人群死亡影响的时间序列分析评价所

    Time series analysis of the effect of ambient pollutants on population mortality in Heze, China, 2019—2020

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 分析菏泽市大气污染物(PM2.5、SO2、NO2和O3)对居民逐日总死亡、非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡、呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。
      方法 收集2019—2020年菏泽市逐日大气污染物(PM2.5、SO2、NO2和O3)资料、气象资料和常住居民死亡资料, 采用广义相加模型(GAM)的时间序列分析方法研究大气污染物与人群死亡的关联性。
      结果 菏泽市大气中PM2.5浓度每升高10 μg/m3, 在Lag0天人群日均总死亡、非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡超额风险分别为0.95%、0.96%、0.82%和0.92%;SO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3, 在Lag0天呼吸系统死亡超额风险为15.33%;NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3, 在Lag0天人群日均死亡、非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡超额风险分别为3.67%、3.71%、3.34%和4.24%;O3浓度每升高10 μg/m3, 在Lag1天呼吸系统死亡超额风险为1.31%。
      结论 菏泽市大气污染物(PM2.5、SO2、NO2、O3)对常住人群死亡效应存在显著影响。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To analyze the effect of air pollutants (particulate matter 2.5PM2.5, sulfur dioxideSO2, nitrogen dioxideNO2 and OzoneO3) on the daily total, non-accidental, circulatory, and respiratory mortality of inhabitants in Heze, China.
      Methods Daily levels of ambient pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and O3), meteorological data, and mortality data of residents in Heze during 2019—2020, were collected for descriptive analysis. The generalized additive model (GAM) of time series analysis was used for estimating the relationship between air pollutants and population mortality.
      Results With an increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5, the excess risks(ERs) of the averages of daily total mortality, non-accidental mortality, circulatory mortality, and respiratory mortality on Lag0 day were 0.95%, 0.96%, 0.82%, and 0.92%, respectively. With an increase of 10 μg/m3 of SO2, the ER of respiratory mortality on Lag0 day was 15.33%. With an increase of 10 μg/m3 of NO2, the ERs of the averages of daily mortality, non-accidental mortality, circulatory mortality, and respiratory mortality on Lag0 day were 3.67%, 3.71%, 3.34%, and 4.24%, respectively. Howerver, for every 10 μg/m3 increase in concentration of O3, the ER of respiratory mortality on Lag1 was 1.31%.
      Conclusion Ambient pollutants (PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and O3) have significant effect on the mortality of residents in Heze.

       

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