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    常会云, 赵川, 蔡建宁, 陈凤格, 张莹, 关茗洋. 2015—2018年石家庄市大气PM2.5与儿童神经系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(6): 506-512. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.06.005
    引用本文: 常会云, 赵川, 蔡建宁, 陈凤格, 张莹, 关茗洋. 2015—2018年石家庄市大气PM2.5与儿童神经系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(6): 506-512. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.06.005
    shu
    CHANG Huiyun, ZHAO Chuan, CAI Jianning, CHEN Fengge, ZHANG Ying, GUAN Mingyang. Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric PM2.5 and Outpatients of Children with Nervous System Diseases in Shijiazhuang, China, 2015—2018[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(6): 506-512. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.06.005
    Citation: CHANG Huiyun, ZHAO Chuan, CAI Jianning, CHEN Fengge, ZHANG Ying, GUAN Mingyang. Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric PM2.5 and Outpatients of Children with Nervous System Diseases in Shijiazhuang, China, 2015—2018[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(6): 506-512. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.06.005
    shu

    2015—2018年石家庄市大气PM2.5与儿童神经系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析

    Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric PM2.5 and Outpatients of Children with Nervous System Diseases in Shijiazhuang, China, 2015—2018

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探讨石家庄市大气PM2.5质量浓度与儿童神经系统疾病日门诊量的关系。
      方法 收集2015—2018年石家庄市的空气污染物日均质量浓度、日均温度、日均相对湿度以及每日儿童神经系统疾病门诊个案数据并进行统计描述, 采用基于Poisson分布的广义相加时间序列模型, 定量评估PM2.5质量浓度与儿童神经系统疾病门诊量的关系, 并进行性别、年龄和疾病种类分层分析。
      结果 2015—2018年石家庄市PM2.5日均质量浓度的中位数为63.50 μg/m3, 儿童神经系统疾病日门诊量的中位数为74人次。时间序列分析显示: PM2.5质量浓度(lag7 d)每升高10 μg/m3, 儿童神经系统疾病的门诊量(95%CI)增加0.20%(0.02%, 0.39%); 分层分析发现, PM2.5质量浓度与女性、(0 ~ 6)岁、中枢炎性和脑损伤性儿童神经系统疾病门诊量存在关联, 超额就诊风险(95%CI)分别为0.30%(0.08%, 0.52%)、0.23%(0.04%, 0.43%)、0.43%(0.08%, 0.79%)、0.44%(0.10%, 0.77%)。
      结论 石家庄市PM2.5质量浓度的升高可能增加儿童神经系统疾病的患病风险, 且女性、(0 ~ 6)岁儿童更敏感, 中枢炎性和脑损伤性神经系统疾病可能为PM2.5的敏感性疾病。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To investigate the relationship between the mass concentration of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and the daily outpatients of children with nervous system diseases in Shijiazhuang, China.
      Methods A descriptive statistical analysis was performed for daily average mass concentration of air pollutants, daily average temperature, daily average relative humidity, and daily outpatient cases of children with nervous system diseases in Shijiazhuang from 2015 to 2018, and a generalized additive time series model based on Poisson distribution was used to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between PM2.5 mass concentration and the outpatients of children with nervous system diseases. A stratified analysis was performed based on sex, age, and disease types.
      Results The median daily average mass concentration of PM2.5 in Shijiazhuang from 2015 to 2018 was 63.50 μg/m3, and the median outpatients of children with nervous system diseases was 74. The time series analysis showed that for every 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 mass concentration (lag7 d), the outpatients (95%CI) of children with nervous system diseases was increased by 0.20% (0.02%, 0.39%), and the stratified analysis showed that there was a relationship between PM2.5 mass concentration and the outpatients of girls with nervous system diseases, children with nervous system diseases aged 0-6 years, children with central inflammatory nervous system diseases, and children with brain injury-related nervous system diseases, with excess risk of visits (95%CI) of 0.30% (0.08%, 0.52%), 0.23% (0.04%, 0.43%), 0.43% (0.08%, 0.79%), and 0.44% (0.10%, 0.77%), respectively.
      Conclusion The increase in PM2.5 mass concentration in Shijiazhuang may increase the risk of nervous system diseases in children, especially girls and the children aged 0-6 years, and central inflammatory nervous system diseases and brain injury-related nervous system diseases may be sensitive to PM2.5.

       

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