宋和佳, 程义斌, 李永红, 张睿, 汪子贤, 张馨航, 姚孝元. 气温和大气颗粒物对哈尔滨市人群死亡影响的交互作用[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(4): 318-325. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.04.003
    引用本文: 宋和佳, 程义斌, 李永红, 张睿, 汪子贤, 张馨航, 姚孝元. 气温和大气颗粒物对哈尔滨市人群死亡影响的交互作用[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(4): 318-325. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.04.003
    SONG Hejia, CHENG Yibin, LI Yonghong, ZHANG Rui, WANG Zixian, ZHANG Xinhang, YAO Xiaoyuan. Interactions between Air Temperature and Atmospheric Particulate Matter on Mortality of People in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(4): 318-325. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.04.003
    Citation: SONG Hejia, CHENG Yibin, LI Yonghong, ZHANG Rui, WANG Zixian, ZHANG Xinhang, YAO Xiaoyuan. Interactions between Air Temperature and Atmospheric Particulate Matter on Mortality of People in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(4): 318-325. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.04.003

    气温和大气颗粒物对哈尔滨市人群死亡影响的交互作用

    Interactions between Air Temperature and Atmospheric Particulate Matter on Mortality of People in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China

    • 摘要:
      目的 定量评估哈尔滨市日平均气温和可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、细颗粒物(PM2.5)对人群死亡影响的交互作用。
      方法 收集2014—2016年哈尔滨市每日死亡资料,大气颗粒物中PM10、PM2.5等污染物浓度资料及气象资料,采用双变量反应平面模型以及温度分层法和分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)定性和定量评估大气颗粒物中PM10、PM2.5和日平均气温对哈尔滨市人群死亡影响的交互作用。
      结果 双变量反应平面模型结果显示,日平均气温和大气颗粒物中PM10、PM2.5与人群死亡之间的关系存在交互作用,差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。温度分层分析结果发现,高温时,累积滞后天数越长,PM10和PM2.5对日总死亡数的影响越大,当累积滞后12 d时,PM10和PM2.5每升高10 μg/m3,日总死亡的累积相对危险度(CRR)分别增加10.4%(95%CI: 2.7% ~ 18.8%)和18.2%(95%CI: 1.8% ~ 37.1%);低温和中温时,未发现PM10和PM2.5与总死亡之间的关联具有统计学意义。与中温层相比,高温时PM10和PM2.5对死亡的影响更大,且差异有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。亚组分析结果显示,高温时,大气颗粒物对男性和65岁以上老年人群死亡的影响更大。
      结论 气温和PM10、PM2.5对哈尔滨市人群死亡的影响具有交互作用,在高温时PM10、PM2.5对死亡的影响更大。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To assess the interactions between the daily mean air temperature, inhalable particulate matter (PM10), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on mortality of people in Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China.
      Methods The daily mortality data, meteorological data, and atmospheric pollutants concentration data, including PM10, PM2.5, etc. in Harbin from 2014 to 2016 were collected. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with quasi-Poisson link, bivariate response surface model, and stratified model were used to detect and measure the potential interactions between atmospheric particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and air temperature on the daily mortality in Harbin.
      Results The bivariate response surface model showed that there were significant interactions between PM10, PM2.5 and air temperature on mortality (P < 0.05). The stratified analysis showed that at high temperature, the longer the accumulative lag days, the greater the influence of PM10 and PM2.5 on the total daily mortality. When the accumulative lag was 12 d, the accumulative risks of the total daily mortality were increased to 10.4% (95% CI: 2.7%-18.8%) and 18.2% (95% CI: 1.8%-37.1%), respectively, with the increase of PM10 and PM2.5 by 10 μg/m3 . At low and moderate temperatures, no significant correlations between PM10/PM2.5 and total mortality were found. Compared with the moderate temperature layer, PM10 and PM2.5 had significantly greater influence on the mortality at high temperature (P < 0.05). A subgroup analysis showed that at high temperature, atmospheric particulate matter had a greater influence on the mortality of males and people over 65 years of age.
      Conclusion There are interactions between PM10, PM2.5 and air temperature on mortality of people in Harbin. At high temperature, PM10 and PM2.5 have greater influence on the risk of mortality.

       

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