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    翁创伟, 陈力, 曾珏, 卢嘉明. 广州市越秀区大气NO2污染与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(3): 250-254. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.03.005
    引用本文: 翁创伟, 陈力, 曾珏, 卢嘉明. 广州市越秀区大气NO2污染与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(3): 250-254. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.03.005
    shu
    WENG Chuangwei, CHEN Li, ZENG Jue, LU Jiaming. A Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric NO2 Pollution and Outpatient Visits of Children for Respiratory Diseases in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(3): 250-254. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.03.005
    Citation: WENG Chuangwei, CHEN Li, ZENG Jue, LU Jiaming. A Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric NO2 Pollution and Outpatient Visits of Children for Respiratory Diseases in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(3): 250-254. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.03.005
    shu

    广州市越秀区大气NO2污染与儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的时间序列分析

    A Time Series Analysis of Atmospheric NO2 Pollution and Outpatient Visits of Children for Respiratory Diseases in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou, China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 探讨广州市越秀区大气NO2对儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响。
      方法 收集2014—2016年大气污染物NO2数据、气象资料和越秀区某儿童医院呼吸系统疾病门诊量资料。采用Spearman秩相关分析和广义相加模型时间序列分析研究大气NO2浓度与同期儿童呼吸系统疾病门诊量的关系和滞后效应。
      结果 2014—2016年越秀区大气NO2浓度年均值分别为61.30、60.46和60.81 μg/m3, 超标天数分别为70、64和62 d。时间序列分析结果表明, 大气NO2浓度对呼吸系统疾病门诊量第(0~7)d有明显影响, 当天(lag0 d)的影响最大, 超额危险度ER(95%CI)为1.45%(0.93%~1.98%); 累积滞后(0~6)d(lag06 d)时累积效应最强, 超额危险度ER(95%CI)为3.07%(2.04%~4.10%)。
      结论 2014—2016年广州市越秀区NO2浓度增加会导致呼吸系统疾病门诊量增加。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To explore the effect of atmospheric NO2 concentration on outpatient visits of children for respiratory diseases in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou, China.
      Methods Data on atmospheric NO2, meteorology, and the outpatient visits for respiratory diseases were collected in a children's hospital in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou from 2014 to 2016. Spearman rank correlation analysis and time series analysis using a generalized additive model were applied to study relationship and its lag effects between atmospheric NO2 concentration and concurrent pediatric outpatient visits for respiratory diseases.
      Results In 2014, 2015, and 2016, the annual means of atmospheric NO2 concentration in Yuexiu District were 61.30, 60.46 and 60.81 μg/m3, respectively, and the days in which the NO2 concentrations over the national standard values were 70, 64 and 62, respectively. The time series analysis showed significant effect of atmospheric NO2 concentration on respiratory outpatient visits from day 0 to day 7, with the greatest effect on the lag0 d. An excess risk (ER) of 1.45% (95% CI: 0.93%-1.98%) was on lag day 0 (lag0). The greatest cumulative lag effect and an ER of 3.07% (95% CI: 2.04%-4.10%) were observed on lag days 0-6 (lag06 d).
      Conclusion The increase in NO2 in Yuexiu District of Guangzhou from 2014 to 2016 led to outpatient visits increasing for respiratory diseases.

       

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