孙成瑶, 赵川, 蔡建宁, 张莹, 陈凤格, 关茗洋. 石家庄市气态污染物与每日居民死亡人数的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(1): 49-56. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.01.010
    引用本文: 孙成瑶, 赵川, 蔡建宁, 张莹, 陈凤格, 关茗洋. 石家庄市气态污染物与每日居民死亡人数的时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2021, 11(1): 49-56. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.01.010
    SUN Chengyao, ZHAO Chuan, CAI Jianning, ZHANG Ying, CHEN Fengge, GUAN Mingyang. Time-Series Analysis of the Association Between Gaseous Pollutants and Daily Mortality of Residents in Shijiazhuang, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(1): 49-56. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.01.010
    Citation: SUN Chengyao, ZHAO Chuan, CAI Jianning, ZHANG Ying, CHEN Fengge, GUAN Mingyang. Time-Series Analysis of the Association Between Gaseous Pollutants and Daily Mortality of Residents in Shijiazhuang, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2021, 11(1): 49-56. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2021.01.010

    石家庄市气态污染物与每日居民死亡人数的时间序列分析

    Time-Series Analysis of the Association Between Gaseous Pollutants and Daily Mortality of Residents in Shijiazhuang, China

    • 摘要:
      目的 探讨石家庄市大气气态污染物SO2、NO2、O3-8 h和CO浓度与居民每日死亡人数之间的关系。
      方法 收集石家庄市2013—2016年每日死亡人数、大气污染物浓度、气象资料,采用广义相加时间序列模型,分析气态污染物浓度对死亡的影响,并按照性别、年龄进行分层分析。
      结果 大气SO2浓度每增加10 μg/m3,人群非意外总死亡和因循环系统疾病死亡的风险分别增加0.46%(0.02%,0.90%)和0.75%(0.07%,1.42%);NO2浓度每增加10 μg/m3,人群非意外总死亡和因循环系统疾病死亡的风险分别增加1.00%(0.26%,1.74%)和1.30%(0.16%,2.44%);O3-8 h和CO对死亡风险存在正向影响,但无统计学意义。分层分析表明,SO2对女性健康的影响要高于男性,且差异具有统计学意义;NO2对女性健康的影响要高于男性,对65岁及以上人群的影响明显高于(0~64)岁人群,但两者的差异均不具有统计学意义。
      结论 石家庄市大气气态污染物中SO2和NO2污染较为严重,其浓度的升高会增加居民非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡的风险。建议政府和民众在防护颗粒物污染的同时,也要关注气态污染物对人群健康的影响,并加强对女性的防护。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To investigate the association of the concentrations of the gaseous pollutants SO2, NO2, O3-8 h, and CO with the daily mortality of residents in Shijiazhuang, China.
      Methods The data on daily mortality, gaseous pollutants concentrations, and meteorological factors in Shijiazhuang in 2013—2016 were collected, and a generalized additive time series model was used to evaluate the influence of the concentrations of gaseous pollutants on mortality. A stratified analysis was performed based on sex and age.
      Results The total non-accidental mortality risk and the circulatory mortality risk increased by 0.46% (0.02%, 0.90%) and 0.75% (0.07%, 1.42%), respectively, with the concentration of SO2 increased by 10 μg/m3. The total non-accidental mortality risk and the circulatory mortality risk increased by 1.00% (0.26%, 1.74%) and 1.30% (0.16%, 2.44%), respectively, with the concentration of NO2 increased by 10 μg/m3. O3-8 h and CO had a positive effect on the mortality risk, but there was no statistical significance. The stratified analysis showed that SO2 had a significantly greater influence on women's health than on men's health, and the difference was significant; NO2 had a greater influence on women's health than on men's health, and had a greater influence on the people aged ≥65 years than on those aged (0-64) years, but there was not statisticaliy significant difference.
      Conclusion There is serious pollution of the gaseous pollutants SO2 and NO2 in Shijiazhuang, and the increasing concentrations of SO2 and NO2 might increase the risk of non-accidental mortality and circulatory mortality. It is suggested that the government and the public should pay attention to the impact of gaseous pollutants on people's health, especially females, while protecting particulate pollution.

       

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