高级检索
    周明璋, 廉倩琳, 王蕾, 吴顺华. 利用ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病率周[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(6): 527-531. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.06.002
    引用本文: 周明璋, 廉倩琳, 王蕾, 吴顺华. 利用ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病率周[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(6): 527-531. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.06.002
    shu
    ZHOU Mingzhang, LIAN Qianlin, WANG Lei, WU Shunhua. Prediction of Incidence of Hand Foot Mouth Disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Based on ARIMA-GRNN Combined Model[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(6): 527-531. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.06.002
    Citation: ZHOU Mingzhang, LIAN Qianlin, WANG Lei, WU Shunhua. Prediction of Incidence of Hand Foot Mouth Disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Based on ARIMA-GRNN Combined Model[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(6): 527-531. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.06.002
    shu

    利用ARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病率周

    Prediction of Incidence of Hand Foot Mouth Disease in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Based on ARIMA-GRNN Combined Model

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 分析2009—2015年新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病新发数量的时间分布规律，使用自回归积分滑动平均模型-广义回归神经网络（ARIMA-GRNN）组合模型预测新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病情况，并评价该模型预测新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病率的效果。
      方法 利用Excel 2007软件对2009—2015年新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病数据进行整理，基于2009—2014年手足口病数据为训练集，使用R 3.5.0拟合ARIMA模型，在ARIMA模型的基础上用Matlab 2014拟合ARIMA-GRNN组合模型。利用2015年的数据来检验所拟合的模型的预测效果。
      结果 拟合的ARIMA模型为ARIMA（0，0，1）（2，1，0）12，平均绝对百分比误差（Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE）为19.21%，能够较好的拟合新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病趋势，而在此基础上拟合的ARIMA-GRNN模型的MAPE=15.63%，能更好的拟合数据，模型的效果优于单纯ARIMA模型，用该模型预测2015年发病情况，预测结果符合手足口病发病实际的波动趋势。
      结论 ARIMA-GRNN组合模型对新疆维吾尔自治区手足口病发病率能够很好的拟合和预测，对手足口病预防和监测有积极作用。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives Analyze the temporal distribution pattern of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xinjiang from 2009 to 2015 and predict of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xinjiang in 2015 using autoregressive integrated moving average model-generalized regression neural network (ARIMA-GRNN), evaluate the effect of model prediction of incidence of hand foot mouth disease in Xinjiang.
      Methods Using the Excel software to collect data on hand-foot-mouth disease in Xinjiang from 2009 to 2015, the hand-foot-mouth disease data from 2009 to 2014 were used as a training dataset, and R software was used to establish the ARIMA model. Using the Matlab 2014 software to fit ARIMA-GRNN combined model on the basis of ARIMA model. Using data in 2015 to test the effect of the fitted model.
      Results As for ARIMA(0, 0, 1)(2, 1, 0)12 model, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)=19.21, could match the incidence trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xinjiang well; as for the ARIMA-GRNN model built on ARIMA model, MAPE=15.625, could be better fitted, and the effect of the model was better than that of single ARIMA model. Then use the model to predict the incidence of hand foot mouth disease in Xinjiang in 2015, the predicted results are in line with the actual fluctuation trend of hand-foot-mouth disease.
      Conclusions ARIMA-GRNN combined model could well fit and predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xinjiang. It has a positive effect on the prevention and control as well as monitoring of the disease.

       

      • HTML全文
      • 参考文献(17)
      • 相关文章
      • 施引文献
    • 资源附件(0)

    /

    返回文章
    返回