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    崔永学, 彭秀苗, 曹萌, 于坤坤, 张谊, 张扬, 单冰, 王胜, 崔亮亮. 济南市在全国大气污染治理行动中的长期健康收益[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(5): 467-471. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.05.011
    引用本文: 崔永学, 彭秀苗, 曹萌, 于坤坤, 张谊, 张扬, 单冰, 王胜, 崔亮亮. 济南市在全国大气污染治理行动中的长期健康收益[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(5): 467-471. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.05.011
    shu
    CUI Yongxue, PENG Xiumiao, CAO Meng, YU Kunkun, ZHANG Yi, ZHANG Yang, SHAN Bing, WANG Sheng, CUI Liangliang. Long-term Health Benefits of Jinan City during National Air Pollution Control Action[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(5): 467-471. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.05.011
    Citation: CUI Yongxue, PENG Xiumiao, CAO Meng, YU Kunkun, ZHANG Yi, ZHANG Yang, SHAN Bing, WANG Sheng, CUI Liangliang. Long-term Health Benefits of Jinan City during National Air Pollution Control Action[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(5): 467-471. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.05.011
    shu

    济南市在全国大气污染治理行动中的长期健康收益

    Long-term Health Benefits of Jinan City during National Air Pollution Control Action

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 估算2013—2017年全国大气污染治理行动下济南市居民的长期健康收益。
      方法 收集2013—2017年间济南市PM2.5浓度日均值及2013年和2017年死因监测数据，采用归因环境颗粒物暴露的整合风险模型（IER），计算心血管疾病、缺血性心脏病、中风、肺癌和慢性阻塞性肺部疾病的人群归因分值（PAF），估算济南市五年来PM2.5减少带来的长期健康收益。
      结果 济南市整体及各区县PM2.5年均浓度逐年下降，整体降低幅度为41.8%，但仍存在取暖季高浓度特征。年济南市心血管疾病、缺血性心脏病、中风、肺癌和慢性阻塞性肺部疾病PAF（2013/2017）分别为49.17%/30.61%、83.85%/62.64%、73.03%/50.72%、95.71%/81.73%和79.20%/57.17%。2013年PM2.5浓度降低到2017年的水平后，人群死亡人数将分别减少3 920、2 236、1 437、357、351人。
      结论 2013—2017年全国大气污染治理行动下，济南市大气PM2.5浓度下降明显，五类疾病归因死亡人数均显著下降，应继续积极推进大气污染治理行动，同时注意取暖季的环保措施和暴露防护。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives To estimate the long-term health benefits of residents in Jinan city during the National Air Pollution Control Action from 2013 to 2017.
      Methods The daily average concentration of PM2.5 in Jinan city during 2013-2017 and the monitoring data of death causes in 2013 and 2017 were collected. The authors used an Interior and Exterior Risk model (IER) of attributable environmental particulate matter exposure to calculate the population attributable fraction(PAF) of cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Then the authors estimated the long-term health benefits brought by decreased PM2.5 during 2013-2017.
      Results The annual average concentration of PM2.5 in Jinan city and its districts and counties decreased year by year in 2013 to 2017.The overall reduction was 41.8%, but it was still characterized by high concentrations in the heating season. The PAFs (2013/2017) of cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Jinan city in were 49.17%/30.61%, 83.85%/62.64%, 73.03%/50.72%, 95.71%/81.73% and 79.20%/57.17%, respectively. The population deaths would be reduced by 3 920, 2 236, 1 437, 357, and 351, respectively if the concentration of PM2.5 in 2013 decreased to the level of 2017.
      Conclusions Under implementation of the national air pollution control action in 2013-2017, the atmospheric concentration of PM2.5 in Jinan City declined obviously, and the deaths attributed to the five types of diseases decreased significantly. It was recommended to continually actively promote the air pollution control action, and pay attention to environmental protection measures and exposure protection during the heating season.

       

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