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    谷亚亚, 刘凯, 甄国新, 曾强, 邹天森, 谈敦芳, 张晗, 吕占禄, 张金良. 空气污染对两县区居民每日非意外死亡人数的影响[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(3): 219-226. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.03.005
    引用本文: 谷亚亚, 刘凯, 甄国新, 曾强, 邹天森, 谈敦芳, 张晗, 吕占禄, 张金良. 空气污染对两县区居民每日非意外死亡人数的影响[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(3): 219-226. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.03.005
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    GU Yaya, LIU Kai, ZHEN Guoxin, ZENG Qiang, ZOU Tiansen, TAN Dunfang, ZHANG Han, LYU Zhanlu, ZHANG Jinliang. Effects of Air Pollution on Daily Non-accidental Mortalities of Residents in a County and a District[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(3): 219-226. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.03.005
    Citation: GU Yaya, LIU Kai, ZHEN Guoxin, ZENG Qiang, ZOU Tiansen, TAN Dunfang, ZHANG Han, LYU Zhanlu, ZHANG Jinliang. Effects of Air Pollution on Daily Non-accidental Mortalities of Residents in a County and a District[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(3): 219-226. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.03.005
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    空气污染对两县区居民每日非意外死亡人数的影响

    Effects of Air Pollution on Daily Non-accidental Mortalities of Residents in a County and a District

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 分析并比较县区级行政地区空气污染对居民每日非意外死亡的影响。
      方法 选择承德市F县和北京市S区作为研究地区，分别收集2014—2015年每日非意外死亡人数、空气污染物质量浓度及气象要素。采用时间序列广义相加模型（GAM）定量研究PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2和CO共5种空气污染物质量浓度对当地居民非意外死亡的影响，分别分析空气污染对老年人（≥65岁）和不同性别人群的影响，并与我国大中城市的研究结果相比较。
      结果 F县空气环境中PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2和CO日均质量浓度分别为53.4、79.3、22.4、18.1 μg/m3和0.9 mg/m3；S区对应分别为83.3、108.8、13.8、44.0 μg/m3和1.2 mg/m3。F县和S区平均每日非意外死亡人数分别为5.8和10.7人。除SO2外，其他空气污染物与总非意外死亡均存在显著相关关系。各污染物质量浓度每增加10 μg/m3，F县和S区PM2.5所致居民每日非意外死亡人数分别增加1.20%（lag5）和0.44%（lag4）；PM10对应分别增加1.25%（lag5）和0.38%（lag3）；SO2对应分别增加2.65%（lag1）和1.32%（lag4）；NO2对应分别增加3.90%（lag0）和1.45%（lag4）；CO对应分别增加0.05%（lag0）和0.04%（lag4）。两县区PM2.5、PM10和NO2对老年人的影响均高于总人群，而CO对总人群影响更高。两县区PM10均对女性影响更高，NO2和CO对男性影响更高。
      结论 两县区空气污染短期暴露可增加居民每日非意外死亡人数，风险具有统计学显著性（除SO2），且明显高于我国大中城市研究（除CO），F县5种空气污染物风险均高于S区，对不同性别和年龄人群之间风险存在一定差异。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives To analyze and compare effects of air pollution on daily non-accidental mortalities of residents in county/district level administrative areas.
      Methods The F County of Chengde and the S District of Beijing were selected as study areas. Data on daily non-accidental mortality, air pollutant concentration, and meteorological factors from 2014 to 2015 was collected. A time-series Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was applied to quantitatively investigate the effects of five air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO) on non-accidental mortalities of residents. Analysis was employed to the elderly (≥ 65 years old) and population with different genders respectively. Results were compared with the researches in large and medium-sized cities in China.
      Results Daily average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO in the air environment of F County were 53.4, 79.3, 22.4, 18.1 μg/m3, and 0.9 mg/m3, respectively. The corresponding concentrations in S District were 83.3, 108.8, 13.8, 44.0 μg/m3, and 1.2 mg/m3, respectively. The average daily non-accidental mortalities in F County and S District were 5.8 and 10.7, respectively. A significant correlation exists between all other air pollutants and the total non-accidental mortality except for SO2. With every 10 μg/m3 increase in the concentration of all pollutants, the daily non-accidental mortality caused by PM2.5 in F County and S District increased by 1.20% (lag5) and 0.44% (lag4), respectively. The corresponding increases were 1.25% (lag5) and 0.38% (lag3) for PM10, 2.65% (lag1) and 1.32% (lag4) for SO2, 3.90% (lag0) and 1.45% (lag4) for NO2, and 0.05% (lag0) and 0.04% (lag4) for CO. Effects of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 on non-accidental mortality on the elderly were all stronger than those on the total population in these two areas, but CO showed higher effects on the total population. Effects of PM10 were higher on females in these two areas, but NO2 and CO both posed higher effects on males.
      Conclusions The short-term exposure of air pollution was associated with the increase of daily non-accidental mortalities of residents in these two areas. The risks have a statistical significance (except for SO2), and is obviously higher than that in the studies of large and medium cities in China (except for CO). The risks of 5 kinds of air pollutants in F County were all higher than those in S District, and the risks of population with different genders and ages have a certain difference.

       

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