方道奎, 周国宏, 冯锦姝, 季佳佳, 余淑苑. 深圳市高温热浪健康风险指数的建立和应用评估[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(1): 14-18. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.01.003
    引用本文: 方道奎, 周国宏, 冯锦姝, 季佳佳, 余淑苑. 深圳市高温热浪健康风险指数的建立和应用评估[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2019, 9(1): 14-18. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.01.003
    FANG Daokui, ZHOU Guohong, FENG Jinshu, JI Jiajia, YU Shuyuan. Establishment and Evaluation on Health Risk Index of Heat Wave in Shenzhen[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(1): 14-18. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.01.003
    Citation: FANG Daokui, ZHOU Guohong, FENG Jinshu, JI Jiajia, YU Shuyuan. Establishment and Evaluation on Health Risk Index of Heat Wave in Shenzhen[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2019, 9(1): 14-18. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2019.01.003

    深圳市高温热浪健康风险指数的建立和应用评估

    Establishment and Evaluation on Health Risk Index of Heat Wave in Shenzhen

    • 摘要:
      目的 建立高温热浪健康风险指数及应对体系,为深圳市预测与合理应对高温热浪天气可能对市民造成的健康风险提供科学依据。
      方法 收集深圳市历年的空气污染物、气象、人口、死亡数据,以及医院门、急诊资料,以历史数据为基础,建立高温热浪健康风险预警模型,设计开发预警软件系统,确定风险评估指标及指标评判的内容与依据,并于2017年夏季(6~9)月开始正式向公众发布高温热浪健康风险指数,同时比较预警信号与试点医院同期门急诊、住院病例的相关性。
      结果 将高温热浪引起发病的易感程度以"高温热浪健康风险指数"表示,按照发病风险(以百分数表示,表示发病的概率,即引起发病的可能性)的大小建立深圳市Ⅰ~Ⅳ级高温热浪健康风险指数等级;Ⅱ级预警的儿童呼吸系统疾病门急诊就诊人数与0级差异有统计学意义。
      结论 预警系统信号发出及时,运行状况良好,高温热浪健康风险指数及应对体系在预测与合理应对高温热浪天气对市民造成的健康风险中起到了重要作用。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives To establish a health risk index and response system of high temperature or heat wave, so as to provide a scientific basis for Shenzhen to predict and reasonably cope with the health risks caused by high-temperature or heat wave weather.
      Methods Historical data on air pollutants, meteorology, population and death, as well as hospital outpatient and emergency data in Shenzhen were collected. A health risk early-warning model of high temperature or heat wave was established, and an early warning system was designed and developed to identify risk assessment indicators on the basis of historical data. And health risk index of high temperature or heat wave was officially released to the public in Shenzhen in summer 2017 (from June to September) according to the content and the basis for judgment, and the correlation between the early warning signal and the outpatient, emergency and inpatient cases in pilot hospitals during the same period was compared.
      Results The susceptibility to morbidity caused by high-temperature or heat wave was expressed as "health risk index of high-temperature and heat wave", and the health risk index grade I to IV of Shenzhen was established according to the incidence risk of the disease (indicated by the percentage, indicating the probability of the disease occurrence, i.e. the possibility of occurrence). There was a statistically significant difference in the number of outpatient and emergency visits of children with respiratory diseases between grade Ⅱ early warning and level 0.
      Conclusions The early warning system signal was issued in a timely manner and the operation status was good. The health risk index of high-temperature heat wave and its response system played an important role in predicting and responding reasonably dealing with the health risks caused by high-temperature or heat wave weather to the residents.

       

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