明小燕, 李燕, 杨勇, 余青. 宜昌市臭氧对人群死亡急性效应[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(5): 423-428. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.011
    引用本文: 明小燕, 李燕, 杨勇, 余青. 宜昌市臭氧对人群死亡急性效应[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(5): 423-428. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.011
    MING Xiaoyan, LI Yan, YANG Yong, YU Qing. Acute Effect of Ozone on Death of Population in Yichang[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2018, 8(5): 423-428. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.011
    Citation: MING Xiaoyan, LI Yan, YANG Yong, YU Qing. Acute Effect of Ozone on Death of Population in Yichang[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2018, 8(5): 423-428. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.011

    宜昌市臭氧对人群死亡急性效应

    Acute Effect of Ozone on Death of Population in Yichang

    • 摘要:
      目的  评估宜昌市大气重点污染物臭氧(O3)对人群死亡的急性影响。
      方法  收集2014—2016年宜昌市逐日气象、空气污染物和人群死亡资料,并进行描述性分析。采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义线性模型(GLM),控制长期趋势和季节趋势、气象因素、星期几效应、节假日效应进行O3与逐日人群总死亡率的单污染物模型分析、滞后效应(Lag 1~Lag 7)。计算污染物浓度每升高10 μg/m3,总死亡率增加的ER(excess risk)及95%CI(95% confidence interval)。敏感性分析实施双污染物模型和多污染物模型分析。
      结果  2014—2016年宜昌市逐日O3及人群死亡数时间序列分析结果显示,浓度每升高10 μg/m3,O3(Lag 6)可使人群总死亡率增加0.60%(95%CI:0.01%~1.19%)。
      结论  宜昌市大气污染物O3对人群死亡效应存在显著性急性影响。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives To evaluate the acute effect of ozone (O3), a major atmospheric pollutant, on death of population in Yichang.
      Methods  Daily meteorological data, air pollutants and the death in population in Yichang in 2014-2016 were collected and analyzed descriptively. Using a generalized linear model (GLM) based on Quasi-Poisson regression, controlling the long-term trend and seasonal trend, meteorological factors and the effect of the day of a week and holiday effects, the relation of the concentration of O3in the air with daily death from respiratory diseases and its lag effect (Lag 1~Lag 7) were analyzed by a single-contaminant model. ER (excess risk) and 95% CI (95% confidence interval) of the total increase of death rate were calculated for every 10 μg/m3 increase of total pollutants. The sensitivity was analyzed by using a double-pollutant model and a multi-pollutant model.
      Results  Time series analysis on the result of daily O3 and the death of population in Yichang in 2014-2016 showed that the increase of every 10 μg/m3 O3 (Lag 6) would increase the mortality rate by 0.60% (95% CI:0.01%~1.19%).
      Conclusions  The increase of ozone pollution in Yichang would have a significant and acute effect on the death of the population.

       

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