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    陈少杏, 李丽萍, 张子路, 何晓艺, 谭学瑞, 徐光兴, 张旭彬. 汕头市手足口病流行特征及其与气象因素的相关性研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(5): 381-385, 392. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.004
    引用本文: 陈少杏, 李丽萍, 张子路, 何晓艺, 谭学瑞, 徐光兴, 张旭彬. 汕头市手足口病流行特征及其与气象因素的相关性研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(5): 381-385, 392. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.004
    shu
    CHEN Shaoxing, LI Liping, ZHANG Zilu, HE Xiaoyi, TAN Xuerui, XU Guangxing, ZHANG Xubin. Epidemic Trend of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Shantou and Its Association with Meteorological Factors[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2018, 8(5): 381-385, 392. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.004
    Citation: CHEN Shaoxing, LI Liping, ZHANG Zilu, HE Xiaoyi, TAN Xuerui, XU Guangxing, ZHANG Xubin. Epidemic Trend of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Shantou and Its Association with Meteorological Factors[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2018, 8(5): 381-385, 392. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.05.004
    shu

    汕头市手足口病流行特征及其与气象因素的相关性研究

    Epidemic Trend of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Shantou and Its Association with Meteorological Factors

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的  探讨汕头市手足口病流行特征及其与气象之间的关系，为手足口病的疫情防控提供支撑。
      方法  描述性流行病学指标分析手足口病的流行特征，采用广义相加模型分析汕头市2011—2015年周气象因素（平均风速、日照时数、平均气压、平均气温、平均水汽压、降雨量）对手足口病发病数的影响。
      结果  2011—2015年，汕头市共报告手足口病47 593例，年均发病率为173.57/10万。5岁以下发病数占总发病人数的92.51%，其中（1~2）岁组占比最高（32.02%）。年发病流行趋势以双峰为主，高峰集中在（4—6）月，小高峰在（9—11）月，呈明显的季节性特征。滞后一周建立的广义相加模型显示周平均气温与手足口病的发病数近似呈线性关系，两者呈递增关系，达到25℃后，发病数递增速度呈降低趋势；周相对湿度与发病数呈线性关系，表现为单调递增关系。
      结论  高气温、高湿度可导致手足口病发病率升高，应根据流行特征及气候变化做好疫情预测和防控工作。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives  To analyze the prevalent characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Shantou and its relationship with meteorological factors.
      Methods  Retrospective investigation was used to reveal the prevalence of HFMD in Shantou in 2011-2015. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to analyze the relationship between HFMD incidence and weekly meteorological factors.
      Results  A total of 47 593 HFMD cases were reported in 2011-2015 in Shantou. The annual incidence was 173.57/105. The children under the age of 5 accounted for 92.51% of the total number of cases, among them, the (1~2) year-old group had the highest proportion (32.02%). The prevalence of HFMD yearly in Shantou appeared to be a two-peak with obviously seasonal feature. The first peak was in April to June and the other small peak was in September to November. The weekly average temperature, average vapor pressure, relative humidity, rainfall and average atmospheric pressure with one week lag were significantly associated with the weekly number of HFMD cases. There was a liner relationship between the weekly average temperature and weekly relative humidity with weekly incidence of HFMD.
      Conclusions  High temperature and high humidity could induce the increase of HFMD incidence. The strategy for prediction, prevention and control of HFMD should be mainly based on climate change and the epidemic characteristics of the disease.

       

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