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    杨柳, 张军, 王莹, 于坤坤, 崔亮亮. 2016年济南市大气PM2.5对人群超额死亡风险评估[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(3): 178-183. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.03.004
    引用本文: 杨柳, 张军, 王莹, 于坤坤, 崔亮亮. 2016年济南市大气PM2.5对人群超额死亡风险评估[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2018, 8(3): 178-183. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.03.004
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    YANG Liu, ZHANG Jun, WANG Ying, YU Kunkun, CUI Liangliang. Risk Assessment on PM2.5 Related Excess Mortality in Jinan, 2016[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2018, 8(3): 178-183. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.03.004
    Citation: YANG Liu, ZHANG Jun, WANG Ying, YU Kunkun, CUI Liangliang. Risk Assessment on PM2.5 Related Excess Mortality in Jinan, 2016[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2018, 8(3): 178-183. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2018.03.004
    shu

    2016年济南市大气PM2.5对人群超额死亡风险评估

    Risk Assessment on PM2.5 Related Excess Mortality in Jinan, 2016

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 定量评估2016年济南市大气PM2.5对人群造成的超额死亡风险。
      方法 采用2016年济南市空气污染数据和文献报道的济南市PM2.5对死亡的暴露-反应关系系数，应用比例风险模型估算济南市2016年大气PM2.5在不同季节、采暖期和雾霾期造成的超额死亡风险。
      结果 2016年济南市PM2.5造成非意外死亡、心脑血管系统疾病、脑血管系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病超额死亡风险分别为1 867（1 578~2 156）人、1 645（1 415~1 876）人、225（157~287）人和228（184~271）人。冬季PM2.5导致人群超额死亡风险显著高于其他季节（P < 0.001）；采暖期PM2.5人群超额死亡风险显著高于非采暖期（P < 0.001）；雾霾期99天，造成人群超额死亡风险显著高于非雾霾期（P < 0.001）。
      结论 冬季、采暖期和雾霾期PM2.5显著增加人群的超额死亡风险，建议加强相应时期PM2.5的控制措施，同时加强居民对雾霾健康的防护知识和宣传，降低PM2.5对人群健康的风险。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives To assess the risk of excess mortality caused by PM2.5 quantitatively.
      Methods Based on the data of air pollutants and exposure-mortality coefficient in Jinan recorded in previous study, the risk of PM2.5 related excess mortality in Jinan was estimated by using a proportional risk model.
      Results The risk of PM2.5 related excess death in 2016, including non-accidental causes, cardio-cerebro-vascular diseases, cerebrovascular disease and respiratory diseases, was in 1 867 (1 578~2 156) people, 1 645 (1 415~1 876) people, 225(157~287) people and 228 (184~271) people, respectively. Excess mortality caused by PM2.5 in winter and heating period was significantly higher than that in other period (P < 0.001). There were 99 haze days in Jinan in 2016. The risk of PM2.5 related excess mortality in haze days was significantly increased (P < 0.001).
      Conclusions Winter, heating period and high air PM2.5 concentration increased the risk of excess mortality. It suggested that PM2.5 control measures and residents' knowledge and the publicity on PM2.5 protection should be strengthened in the corresponding period.

       

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