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    张旭辉, 周伟杰, 张熙. 无锡市大气污染物对人群日死亡数和日就诊数影响的时间序列分析研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2016, 6(6): 407-411. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.06.005
    引用本文: 张旭辉, 周伟杰, 张熙. 无锡市大气污染物对人群日死亡数和日就诊数影响的时间序列分析研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2016, 6(6): 407-411. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.06.005
    shu
    ZHANG Xuhui, ZHOU Weijie, ZHANG Xi. Time-series Analysis on Effects of Air Pollutants on Daily Mortality and Daily Outpatient Visits in Wuxi, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2016, 6(6): 407-411. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.06.005
    Citation: ZHANG Xuhui, ZHOU Weijie, ZHANG Xi. Time-series Analysis on Effects of Air Pollutants on Daily Mortality and Daily Outpatient Visits in Wuxi, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2016, 6(6): 407-411. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.06.005
    shu

    无锡市大气污染物对人群日死亡数和日就诊数影响的时间序列分析研究

    Time-series Analysis on Effects of Air Pollutants on Daily Mortality and Daily Outpatient Visits in Wuxi, China

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 研究无锡市大气污染物（PM2.5、PM10、SO2和NO2）对人群日死亡数和日就诊数影响。
      方法 从无锡市疾病预防控制中心健康促进部获得2012年1月1日-2013年12月31日的无锡市居民死因统计资料，从无锡市环境监测中心站获得同期的每日大气污染物监测资料，从无锡市气象局获得同期的每日气象监测资料，从无锡市第三人民医院和无锡市儿童医院获得同期的日就诊数资料，采用基于R软件的时间序列的Poisson广义线性模型，在控制时间的长期趋势、季节因素、气象因素、星期几效应和其他混杂因素后，分析无锡市大气污染物与居民日死亡数和日就诊数的关系。
      结果 PM2.5、PM10、SO2和NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3，日死亡数分别增加1.5%、1.2%、0.9%和1.0%；儿童就诊数分别增加0.7%、0.6%和0.3%和1.1%；成人就诊数分别增加0.6%、0.7%、0.7%和1.3%。
      结论 无锡市的大气污染物浓度能增加人群的日死亡数和日就诊数。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective To study the effect of air pollutants on daily mortality and daily outpatient visits in Wuxi.
      Methods The data of daily death air pollutants, meteorology and daily outpatient visits were collected from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2013 in Wuxi, the time-series analysis by generalized linear model of Poisson regression based on R foundation for statistical computing was employed for analyzing the effect of air pollutants on daily mortality and daily outpatient visits via controlling the long-term trends, seasonal patterns, meteorological variables, the week effect and other confounding factors.
      Results An increase of 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5, PM10, SO2 and NO2 corresponded to 1.5%, 1.2%, 0.9% and 1.0% increase of daily mortality; corresponded to 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.3% and 1.1% increase of daily child outpatient visits; corresponded to 0.6%, 0.7%, 0.7% and 1.3% increase of daily adult outpatient visits respectively in Wuxi.
      Conclusion The results of the present paper showed that the current level of air pollutants can increase the daily mortality and daily outpatient visits in Wuxi.

       

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