臧涛, 尹纯礼, 李林林, 姚慈将, 张健, 操基玉. 六安市大气污染与医院心血管门诊关系时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2016, 6(3): 214-218. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.03.010
    引用本文: 臧涛, 尹纯礼, 李林林, 姚慈将, 张健, 操基玉. 六安市大气污染与医院心血管门诊关系时间序列分析[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2016, 6(3): 214-218. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.03.010
    ZANG Tao, YIN Chunli, LI Linlin, YAO Cijiang, ZHANG Jian, CAO Jiyu. Time Series Analysis on Relationship between Air Pollution and Outpatient Visits for Cardiovascular Diseases in a Hospital in Liu'an City[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2016, 6(3): 214-218. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.03.010
    Citation: ZANG Tao, YIN Chunli, LI Linlin, YAO Cijiang, ZHANG Jian, CAO Jiyu. Time Series Analysis on Relationship between Air Pollution and Outpatient Visits for Cardiovascular Diseases in a Hospital in Liu'an City[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2016, 6(3): 214-218. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2016.03.010

    六安市大气污染与医院心血管门诊关系时间序列分析

    Time Series Analysis on Relationship between Air Pollution and Outpatient Visits for Cardiovascular Diseases in a Hospital in Liu'an City

    • 摘要:
      目的  研究六安市大气污染、气象因素对某医院心血管系统疾病门诊量的影响。
      方法  采用广义相加Poisson回归模型的时间序列研究,在控制门诊量的长期趋势,星期效应,气象因素等混杂因素的影响后,分析六安市2012年1月1日-2013年12月31日大气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10等浓度与六安市某医院心血管系统疾病门诊量之间的关系。
      结果  研究期间,心血管系统疾病日门诊量为69.7人次。在单因素广义相加Poisson回归模型中,SO2对心血管系统疾病门诊量存在保护作用,浓度每升高10μg/m3在滞后第3天相应的RR达到最大值为0.9987(0.9975~0.9998)。NO2、PM10浓度分别滞后3天,第4天对心血管系统疾病门诊量的影响较明显,其浓度每升高10μg/m3其相应的RR最大值分别为1.0022(1.0012~1.0031),1.00054(1.0002~1.0008)。
      结论  大气污染物SO2与六安市某医院心血管系统门诊量存在负相关。NO2、PM10与该医院心血管系统疾病门诊量存在正相关。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective  To evaluate the health effect of air pollutants on outpatient visits for cardiovascular diseases in Liu'an City.
      Methods  A Generalized Additive Poisson Regression Model was used to examine the time-series and exposure-response relationship between the daily morbidity of cardiovascular diseases and the concentration of ambient SO2, NO2 and PM10 from Jan 1, 2012 to Dec 31, 2013 in Liu'an city after controlling the effect of long-term trends of variation, such as "the day of a week" and meteorological factors.
      Results  The number of daily outpatient visit for cardiovascular diseases was 69.7. The results of a single-pollutant generalized additive Poisson regression model showed a protection of SO2 on the number of outpatient visit for cardiovascular diseases with a 3 days delay, the maximum RR for outpatient visits on each 10 μg/m3 increment of SO2 was 0.9987 (CI:0.9975~0.9998). The increment of NO2 and PM10 concentration showed a significant increase of outpatient visit for cardiovascular diseases with a 3 days and 4 days delay, respectively. The maximum RR for daily outpatient visits on each 10 μg/m3 increment of NO2 and PM10 were 1.0022(1.0012~1.0031) and 1.00054(1.0002~1.0008), respectively.
      Conclusion  The concentration of SO2 was positively associated with daily outpatient visits; and the concentration of NO2 and PM10 was positively associated with daily outpatient visits for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Liu'an city.

       

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