于永, 王炜翔, 周连, 陈晓东. 南京市流感样病例与气温的关系研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2015, 5(5): 414-417, 421. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2015.05.006
    引用本文: 于永, 王炜翔, 周连, 陈晓东. 南京市流感样病例与气温的关系研究[J]. 环境卫生学杂志, 2015, 5(5): 414-417, 421. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2015.05.006
    YU Yong, WANG Weixiang, ZHOU Lian, CHEN Xiaodong. Analysis on Relationship between Influenza Incidence and Temperature in Nanjing[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2015, 5(5): 414-417, 421. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2015.05.006
    Citation: YU Yong, WANG Weixiang, ZHOU Lian, CHEN Xiaodong. Analysis on Relationship between Influenza Incidence and Temperature in Nanjing[J]. Journal of Environmental Hygiene, 2015, 5(5): 414-417, 421. DOI: 10.13421/j.cnki.hjwsxzz.2015.05.006

    南京市流感样病例与气温的关系研究

    Analysis on Relationship between Influenza Incidence and Temperature in Nanjing

    • 摘要:
      目的 探讨流感发病与气象因素之间的关系。
      方法 收集南京市2010-2013年温度、湿度、气压等每日气象数据和流感样病例监测数据, 通过分布滞后非线性模型定量分析内在关系。
      结果 南京市流感样病例好发季节为秋冬季, 病例主要人群为15岁以下少年儿童, 占81.80%;当日平均温度为14℃时, 南京市流感样病例发生的相对危险度最高, 当日平均温度在25℃和1℃时, 流感样病例发生的相对危险度最低, 相对危险度相当于16℃时的74%和75%;在日平均温度低于1℃或高于25℃后, 流感样病例发生的相对危险度快速上升; 温度对流感样病例的影响存在滞后效应。
      结论 日均气温与流感样病例有明显关联。

       

      Abstract:
      Objectives To analyze the relationship between the incidence of influenza and meteorological factors in Nanjing.
      Methods The daily number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness (ILI) and meteorological data in 2010-2013 were obtained. A distributed lag non-linear models (DNLM) was used to analyze the relationship between ILI and temperature.
      Results The peak season of ILI was in autumn and winter, mainly among adolescents and children aged < 15 year-old, accounting for 81.80% of total cases. The relative risk of occurring influenza-like illness in Nanjing was the highest when the daily average temperature was 14℃; it was the lowest when the daily average temperature was 25℃ and 1℃; and the relative risk was 74% and 75% when the daily average temperature was 16℃. The number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness was increased rapidly when the daily average temperature was lower than 1℃ or higher than 25℃. There was a lag effect of temperature on the incidence of influenza-like illness.
      Conclusions There was a significant relationship between the daily average temperature and the number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness.

       

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