Abstract:
Objectives To analyze the relationship between the incidence of influenza and meteorological factors in Nanjing.
Methods The daily number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness (ILI) and meteorological data in 2010-2013 were obtained. A distributed lag non-linear models (DNLM) was used to analyze the relationship between ILI and temperature.
Results The peak season of ILI was in autumn and winter, mainly among adolescents and children aged < 15 year-old, accounting for 81.80% of total cases. The relative risk of occurring influenza-like illness in Nanjing was the highest when the daily average temperature was 14℃; it was the lowest when the daily average temperature was 25℃ and 1℃; and the relative risk was 74% and 75% when the daily average temperature was 16℃. The number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness was increased rapidly when the daily average temperature was lower than 1℃ or higher than 25℃. There was a lag effect of temperature on the incidence of influenza-like illness.
Conclusions There was a significant relationship between the daily average temperature and the number of cases suffered from influenza-like illness.